Chile Votes amid Rising Crime and Migration Fears — Left Leads First Round, Far Right Eyes Runoff

Election Day dominated by public safety and migration

Chileans went to the polls on Sunday in an election dominated by concerns about rising crime and migration — issues that have amplified far-right calls for tougher measures and even mass deportations. Voters had eight hours to cast ballots for president and members of parliament, and preliminary counts were expected within roughly two hours of polls closing at 4:00 pm local time (1900 GMT).

Early polling indicated that the main left-wing contender, Jeannette Jara, a 51-year-old candidate representing a broad coalition and identified with the Communist Party, was poised to win the first round of the presidential vote. Still, many analysts and polls suggested far-right leader José Antonio Kast remained the favorite to prevail in a December runoff.

Public safety at the forefront

A decade-long rise in murders, kidnappings and extortion has eroded Chile’s reputation as one of Latin America’s safest countries, making crime the leading concern for many voters. Citizens described heightened fear and personal experiences of violence at the ballot box.

"Just a few steps from my house, a young boy was recently killed because he was wearing a gold chain; he was shot. And three years ago, on my street, a young girl was almost kidnapped," said Rosario Isidora Herrera Muñoz, who voted in Santiago with her six-month-old baby.

"I hope that some day we'll go back to the way we were before," said 87-year-old retired salesman Mario Faundez. "If we have to kill (criminals), so be it," he added.

Outgoing center-left president Gabriel Boric, who is ineligible to run for immediate re-election, has overseen some improvements: the national murder rate fell roughly 10% since 2022 to about six homicides per 100,000 people — a rate slightly higher than that of the United States. Still, voters remain alarmed by increasingly brutal criminal tactics, which many attribute to gangs arriving from Venezuela and other parts of the region.

Candidates and the political stakes

José Antonio Kast — often compared to Donald Trump — has promised to halt illegal migration by building walls, fences and trenches along Chile’s desert border with Bolivia, the main route for migrants arriving from the north. Kast, an ultraconservative father of nine running for president for the third time, was the runner-up in 2021.

Johannes Kaiser, a 49-year-old former YouTube provocateur who has positioned himself to the right of Kast, gained momentum late in the campaign. The libertarian candidate has been compared to Argentina’s Javier Milei for his vows to drastically shrink the state and for blunt rhetoric on crime and communism. Conservative former minister Evelyn Matthei, 72, struggled to break through amid the shift rightward.

Jeannette Jara faces the twin challenges of widespread anti-communist sentiment and voter disappointment with Boric’s administration. Boric defeated Kast in 2021 after promising social reforms following mass 2019 protests, but his presidency was weakened when voters rejected a proposed progressive constitution months into his term. Jara has campaigned as a working-class moderate with a record of social reforms and promises to ease household financial strain.

If elected, Kast would be Chile’s first far-right head of state since the 1973–1990 military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Kast has publicly defended aspects of Pinochet’s rule; Pinochet’s government toppled a democratically elected socialist administration in 1973 and was responsible for human rights abuses and the deaths of thousands of dissidents.

Voting was compulsory for the first time since 2012, expanding the electorate by nearly five million people. Alongside the presidential contest, Chileans elected members of the Chamber of Deputies and half of the Senate — making this a consequential vote for the country and a bellwether for the left across South America.