Chile Runoff: Hard-Right Jose Antonio Kast Favored Amid Voter Fears Over Crime and Immigration

Chileans head to the polls on Sunday in a presidential runoff widely expected to hand victory to hard-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast, as security and migration concerns dominate the campaign.

Campaign Landscape

Kast, a 59-year-old veteran politician and father of nine, is on track to become Chile's first hard-right president since the return to democracy in 1990 if current polls hold. His opponent, Jeannette Jara, 51, a former labour minister and long-time member of the Communist Party, led the centre-left coalition to a first-round plurality in November but now trails amid public frustration with rising crime and a sluggish economy.

Security and Public Sentiment

Many voters say they feel less safe than before. "Before the country was much safer," said Claudio Benitez, a 50-year-old mining consultant. "The type of crime is different; now your life is in danger." Architect Rafael Urzua, 47, added: "We need security and order. We know that if we continue with Jara, there won't be any change. With Kast, it's a complete change of course."

"We need security and order." — Rafael Urzua, 47

Crime Trends And Context

The picture is complex. Chile has experienced a significant rise in violent crime in recent years — with homicide rates up roughly 140% over the past decade — yet it still records fewer murders per capita than many neighbours. United Nations figures put Chile's current homicide rate at about six per 100,000 people per year, compared with a regional average near 15 per 100,000. Authorities say an influx of transnational criminal groups and the strains of the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the shift.

President Gabriel Boric's leftist administration has taken steps to reduce violence, but many voters consider the measures insufficient, feeding support for tougher policies.

Candidates' Platforms

Kast has built his campaign around hardline security and immigration measures. He has warned roughly 337,000 undocumented migrants that they should "take their things and leave Chile freely" before facing deportation. He has also proposed building a wall on the Bolivian border, arming police with greater firepower and deploying troops to critical areas.

Critics highlight Kast's praise in the past for Augusto Pinochet's regime and his socially conservative stances — including opposition to contraception — as causes for concern about potential curbs on civil liberties. Supporters counter that Kast is more institutionally cautious than some outspoken regional populists and view his rise as a return to a center-right style of governance rather than a revolutionary break.

Jara's Position And Political Headwinds

Jeannette Jara campaigned initially on economic issues such as raising the basic wage but has been obliged to pivot toward security, promising to tackle root causes of crime, control clandestine migration routes and screen undocumented migrants for prior offenses. Her long association with the Communist Party remains a political liability in a country where memories of the dictatorship-era repression persist and shape voter perceptions.

Regional Implications

Analysts note that a Kast victory would echo recent rightward shifts in parts of Latin America. Observers point to domestic grievances — rather than a single external cause — as the primary driver of these political swings, though international movements and figures have sometimes amplified those trends.

What to Watch: turnout among centrist voters, the second-round performance of other right-leaning candidates' supporters, and how both campaigns address security without alienating moderate voters concerned about civil liberties.