Crime Surge Fuels 'Mano Dura' Push as Chile Voters Weigh a Far‑Right Turn

A surge in violent crime has dominated Chile's presidential campaign, elevating hardline security platforms and shifting voter attention away from social and constitutional reforms.

Crime and the campaign

Over the past decade Chile has seen a marked rise in murders, kidnappings and drug trafficking — developments that have shaken a country long regarded as one of Latin America's safest. That spike in violence is central to the presidential contest, with right‑leaning candidates promising an iron fist, or "mano dura," against organized crime and mass deportations for undocumented migrants.

Front‑running contenders

Jeannette Jara, a 51‑year‑old candidate from the left who has described herself as a communist, leads some polls for the first round of voting. She helped drive reforms under President Gabriel Boric's administration — including a reduction of the working week from 45 to 40 hours, increases to the minimum wage and pension changes — and has sought to reassure voters that she would tackle crime without rolling back democratic institutions.

On the right, José Antonio Kast, a conservative who finished second in the previous election, is campaigning on tough security measures and large‑scale deportations for undocumented migrants. He has cited other regional examples of hardline tactics as models for restoring public order. Farther to his right is former YouTuber‑turned‑lawmaker Johannes Kaiser, who has gained support with a confrontational "shoot‑first, ask‑questions‑later" posture toward criminals. Conservative Evelyn Matthei also remains a potential runoff rival.

Migrants, gangs and public fear

Authorities and analysts point to the spread of organized crime groups into Chile from countries such as Venezuela and Peru as a key factor behind rising violence. Politicians on the right have linked this trend to recent migration flows; the government estimates roughly 330,000 undocumented migrants live in Chile, many of them Venezuelans.

"What I want from the next president is more of an iron fist," said Hernan Gonzalez, an educator who works with juvenile offenders in Iquique, reflecting widespread public anxiety about crime.

Regional consequences and international posture

Observers say a far‑right victory in Chile could reshape the country's international stance. Guillaume Long, a senior fellow at the Center for Economic Policy and Research and a former Ecuadorian foreign minister, warned it could push Chile into closer alignment with other hardline leaders in the region.

Context and caution

Campaign rhetoric has sometimes veered into contentious territory: critics highlight inflammatory language from several politicians and controversial proposals such as mass expulsions of undocumented migrants. Journalists and analysts note that some claims about the origins of crime are contested and that durable solutions will require strengthening policing, judicial capacity and social policies.

Looking ahead: If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, polling suggests a likely runoff on December 14 that will determine whether Chile moves toward tougher security‑first governance or chooses to retain a more centrist, rights‑based approach to public safety.