Chile's Presidential Vote Returns to Compulsory Balloting — High Turnout Could Reshape a Tight Race

Chile heads to a pivotal presidential election as compulsory voting returns

Chileans are preparing to cast ballots on Sunday in a presidential contest featuring eight candidates and considerable uncertainty about the outcome. For the first time in more than a decade, voting is compulsory — a change that substantially broadens the electorate and could alter a race that polls show remains close between the government-backed candidate Jeannette Jara and far-right leader José Antonio Kast.

Why the election matters

President Gabriel Boric is ineligible to run for immediate re-election because Chile’s constitution bars consecutive four-year terms. The reinstatement of compulsory voting is expected to produce a notable rise in turnout after years of sustained abstention, introducing an unpredictable element that will test parties’ ability to mobilize a larger and more diverse set of voters.

“This will be an unprecedented election. The enlarged voter roll could produce surprises,” said René Jara, a political science professor at the University of Santiago, noting that newly activated voters may include many who historically did not participate regularly in elections.

Polling, blackout and the path to a runoff

Chilean law bans publication of polls during the 15 days before an election, which leaves campaign momentum and late shifts in opinion difficult to measure publicly. According to the last surveys released before the blackout, Jeannette Jara led in voter preference but without a margin large enough to avoid a second-round runoff scheduled for Dec. 14.

Analysts say Jara’s support would most likely fall short of securing victory in a head-to-head second round. The same pre-blackout polls indicate that any opposition candidate who advances to the runoff would be favored to defeat the government-backed contender.

Opposition fragmentation and key contenders

The right enters the race divided but with three prominent hopefuls: José Antonio Kast, leader of the Republican Party and the apparent frontrunner on the right; Evelyn Matthei, a former cabinet minister under Sebastián Piñera representing the traditional conservative wing; and libertarian Johannes Kaiser, who has emerged as a surprise contender.

Projected matchup numbers from pre-blackout polls showed Jara trailing Kast by roughly 12 points (36% to 48%), Matthei by about 10 points (33% to 46%), and Kaiser by approximately five points.

“This election is significant because of the fragmentation of Chile’s right wing,” said Hernán Campos, a political scientist at Diego Portales University. He added that since 2017—and especially after 2021—more extreme currents have gained influence within the opposition.

Campos also warned that a right-wing victory could extend to legislative gains. If the opposition captures majorities in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, it could pursue deeper reforms affecting institutions and public policy directions that have defined Chile over the past two decades.

Main issues shaping the campaign

Public debate during the campaign centered on three main topics: security, migration and the economy. Voters cited pressure to tackle crime and control the northern border alongside concerns about jobs, inflation and pensions. Long-term and divisive issues — including gender equality, low birth rates and historical memory — also remained part of the national conversation.

In this context, the return of compulsory voting could reshape Chile’s political landscape by bringing many citizens who have long been absent from the democratic process back to the polls, making turnout the critical variable on election night.