Population growth in the United Kingdom slowed sharply in the year to mid-2025, reaching its weakest annual rise outside the Covid-19 pandemic since 1998, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Key drivers include a steep fall in net international migration after record arrivals in 2023 and a long-term decline in births. The ONS estimates the UK population at mid-2025 to be about 69.5 million, an increase of 227,665 (0.33%) from the previous 12 months.
Numbers at a glance
The headline rise of 0.33% is the smallest annual increase since 1998, excluding 2020. This follows much larger growth in recent years: 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024, driven largely by a surge in net migration.
Net international migration in the year to mid-2025 is estimated at 222,900 — down sharply from 651,700 the year before. There were an estimated 652,400 births (the lowest total for more than four decades) and 647,500 deaths, leaving a natural increase (births minus deaths) of only 4,900 people.
Regional differences
The four nations of the UK displayed different trends:
- England: Estimated growth of 0.39%.
- Scotland: Almost static, at 0.04%.
- Northern Ireland: Almost static, at 0.03%.
- Wales: Estimated decline of 0.09% — the first year-on-year fall since 2015.
Wales and Scotland recorded more deaths than births, a pattern the ONS attributes to older average populations and lower average fertility in those nations compared with England and Northern Ireland.
What the projections say
Earlier ONS projections suggested deaths could outnumber births each year from 2026 and that population growth could slow further and eventually stall, with the UK population potentially beginning to fall in the mid-2050s. The ONS stresses these are scenario-based projections built on recent trends — not precise forecasts.
Why migration fell
Several factors likely contributed to the recent drop in net migration: fewer work-related arrivals from outside the EU following stricter immigration rules, reduced arrivals through formal humanitarian resettlement schemes, and an increase in departures from the UK.
ONS note: Projections are based on current and past trends, including falling net migration and lower fertility rates, and do not predict specific future events.
Overall, the data point to a marked slowdown in population growth driven mainly by migration trends and sustained low birth numbers, with clear regional variation across the UK.
