Short Take: President Trump cited falling egg prices to claim grocery costs are "coming way down," but broader data show only eggs have declined recently. Most grocery categories, notably meat and produce, remain higher than a year ago and the USDA expects overall grocery prices to rise about 2.7% in 2026. Eggs make up a tiny share of grocery spending, so their drop does little to reduce household food bills.
Fact Check: Trump Says Groceries Are ‘Way Down’ — Data Shows Only Eggs Have Fallen
Donald Trump eats a pork chop on a stick at the Iowa State Fair in 2015. Win McNamee via Getty Images
President Donald Trump told Fox News that his administration has driven consumer costs lower, saying, “I inherited very, very high costs, and they're all coming down now,” and explicitly citing groceries. That claim draws on a narrow drop in egg prices, but broader data and forecasts show most grocery categories are still rising.
What Trump Said
In multiple recent remarks, including a Fox News interview, Trump highlighted falling egg prices and argued that overall grocery costs are declining — a claim repeated in appearances in Michigan, Pennsylvania and on Air Force One earlier this year.
What The Data Shows
Eggs: The Consumer Price Index released July 24 shows egg prices fell 0.8% month-to-month (May to June) and were about 27.9% lower in June 2026 than in June 2025. That decline follows a spike to historic highs in early 2025 caused largely by avian flu outbreaks.
Broader Grocery Prices: Everything else is largely still getting more expensive. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts overall grocery prices will rise about 2.7% through the rest of 2026, with restaurant/takeout prices up roughly 3.5%.
Major Year‑Over‑Year Changes (June 2026)
- Beef and Veal: +11.8% year-over-year; ERS expects an additional ~10.7% rise by year-end.
- Fresh Vegetables: +9.9% year-over-year; projected +6.8% for the year.
- Pork: +2.4% year-over-year; expected annual increase ~1.6%.
- Fruit: Slight monthly decline, but +2% year-over-year and forecast to rise ~2% by year-end.
- Packaged Sugar and Candy: Projected +7.2% in 2026.
- Nonalcoholic Drinks: +2.9% year-over-year; forecast +3.9% by year-end.
Why Eggs Stand Out — And Why That Matters Little
Egg prices grabbed headlines because they are ubiquitous and highly visible to shoppers. But eggs represent only about 0.8% of the average grocery basket, compared with roughly 4.7% for beef and about 10% for fruits and vegetables. Even a sharp drop in egg prices moves the overall grocery bill only marginally.
Practical Household Impact
Using ERS forecast ranges, a household that spent $100 on groceries in 2025 would likely spend about $102.70 to $103.90 in 2026 for the same basket. For a family of four spending $1,000–$1,400 monthly on groceries, that equates to roughly a $40-a-month increase at the upper end of the range. Experts note these increases weigh far more heavily on lower-income households, who may spend 20–25% of income on food versus about 12% for the average U.S. household.
Bottom Line
Trump’s statement that “the food, the groceries, it’s all coming down” is misleading. Only eggs have shown a notable decline recently; most other grocery categories — especially meat and produce — remain higher than a year ago and are expected to keep rising through 2026. The White House did not respond to HuffPost’s request for comment.
Key Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), expert analysis from Richard Volpe, Cal Poly.
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