The UK Statistics Authority has ruled that referring to £270bn as an "increase" in defence spending was misleading. The watchdog clarified the sum is the proposed total defence budget for 2025-26 to 2028-29, not an additional increase above previous plans. The Wales Office removed a social post and both the Wales Office and the MoD say they have tightened communications to avoid similar errors. Penny Young set out the findings in a letter to Tory shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge.
Watchdog Says £270bn Defence Claim By Keir Starmer, Wales Office And MoD Was Misleading
Earlier this year the former prime minister told MPs that ministers were increasing defence spending by £270bn [EPA]
The UK Statistics Authority has concluded that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, the Wales Office and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) presented a misleading figure when they described defence spending as increasing by £270bn over this Parliament.
What The Watchdog Found
The Authority says the £270bn figure refers to the proposed total defence budget for the lifetime of the next Parliament (2025-26 to 2028-29), not an additional or incremental increase above previous plans. Presenting the number as an "extra" £270bn was therefore incorrect and likely to mislead.
How The Claim Was Used
In March, Sir Keir told the House of Commons Liaison Committee: "We have already committed to 2.5% in 2027, and we will hit that. That means that, in this Parliament, we will spend £270bn more on defence than we would otherwise have done."
Similar language was later used by an MoD spokesperson and appeared in a Wales Office post on X (formerly Twitter) on 3 June. The Wales Office has since deleted that post.
"It is incorrect and misleading to describe the £270bn as an increase in defence spending over the course of this Parliament, or to describe it as an extra £270bn," wrote Penny Young, interim chair of the UK Statistics Authority, in a letter to Conservative shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge.
Responses And Follow-Up
A UK government spokesperson said officials had acknowledged the phrasing and taken steps to prevent a repeat. The Wales Office told the statistics authority that the use of the figure "was a mistake and was amended as soon as it was noticed," and that it has reviewed press lines and quality-assurance processes. The MoD has also said it will ensure future communications use precise and consistent language when presenting defence figures.
Conservative Shadow Wales Secretary Mims Davies commented: "At a time of growing global instability, the public deserves honesty and transparency about our defence budget. Ministers and civil servants should be setting out the facts, not presenting figures in a way that risks misleading people."
BBC Wales reported the figure originated at the MoD rather than the Wales Office. The outcome from the UK Statistics Authority aims to reduce the risk that the £270bn figure will be presented inaccurately in future public statements.
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