The latest Maariv poll shows Likud rising to 22 Knesset seats while the ruling coalition remains at 49 — short of a 61-seat majority. A hypothetical new party led by Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein and Dedi Simchi would poll about 3.8% (roughly four seats) and could push the Zionist Home below the electoral threshold. In leadership matchups, Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu by 10 points and Naftali Bennett leads Netanyahu by five. The survey of 501 adults was conducted July 29–30 with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.
Maariv Poll: Likud Gains Two Seats; Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu By 10 Points
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sarah attend the Likud Party
A new Maariv survey by Lazar Research in cooperation with Panel4All finds Likud up two Knesset seats to 22 following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's trip to Washington and his meeting with US President Donald Trump. The poll highlights a split parliament: the governing coalition remains short of a majority while leadership matchups show strong support for potential challengers.
Key Poll Results
Seat Totals: Likud rises to 22 seats. The coalition bloc as a whole remains at 49 seats, unchanged from the previous poll. The centrist/change-oriented bloc registers 57 seats — still below the 61-seat majority threshold.
New Party Scenario: The poll indicates a hypothetical new party led by Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein and Dedi Simchi would attract about 3.8% of the vote (roughly four Knesset seats). In the poll’s base scenario, the Zionist Home list led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel passed the threshold with four seats. However, if the new centrist-right list runs, Tropper and Hendel’s slate would drop to roughly 2.4% and fall below the threshold.
Photo illustration | Potential center-right political players Dedi Simchi, Ayelet Shaked, Yoaz Hendel, Gilad Erdan, Ofer Winter, Benny Gantz and Yuli Edelstein. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST, RAMI ZENGER, Tal Gal/Flash90, YOSSI ALONI/FLASH90)
Practical Impact: Under the scenario where the new party runs and Zionist Home falls below threshold, the coalition bloc would net one additional seat (rising to 50), the Zionist opposition would lose one (dropping to 56), and Arab parties would remain at 10 seats.
Leadership Matchups
Voters were also asked who they see as better suited for prime minister. In head-to-head matchups:
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu by 10 percentage points (48% vs. 38%) — the largest margin recorded in this comparison to date.
- Naftali Bennett leads Netanyahu by five points (44% vs. 39%), a one-point widening from the previous poll.
- Netanyahu leads Avigdor Liberman 43% to 39% in a separate head-to-head question.
Respondent Preferences For Opposition Leadership
Among those who said they would vote for opposition parties, 45% prefer Gadi Eisenkot to lead the center-left bloc. Naftali Bennett was the second choice at 25%, Avigdor Liberman 11%, and Yair Golan 10%; 9% were undecided.
Methodology
The survey was conducted July 29–30 among 501 respondents meant to represent Israel’s adult population (including both Jewish and Arab citizens). The maximum sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points.
Photo illustration: Potential center-right political figures including Dedi Simchi, Ayelet Shaked, Yoaz Hendel, Gilad Erdan, Ofer Winter, Benny Gantz and Yuli Edelstein. (Credit: Marc Israel Sellem/The Jerusalem Post; Rami Zenger; Tal Gal/Flash90; Yossi Aloni/Flash90)
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