Major U.S. cities have seen the number of children fall significantly over the past decade, with residents under 18 down about 6% in large urban centers versus 1% nationally. The decline is sharper among children under five (15% in big cities). Analysts point to an 18% drop in urban-county birth rates since 2010 and factors such as housing affordability, safety and childcare costs prompting families to move. Some cities are trying targeted childcare programs, but it’s unclear whether those measures will reverse the trend.
Major U.S. Cities See Sharp Drop in Child Populations as Families Leave Over Cost and Safety
America’s biggest cities are seeing a drastic decline in the number of kids
America’s largest cities have experienced a notable decline in the number of children living there over the past decade, driven by falling birth rates and families moving away because of affordability, safety and quality-of-life concerns, recent analyses show.
How Big Is the Drop?
Overall, the share of residents under 18 in major urban centers fell about 6% in the last ten years, compared with roughly a 1% decline nationwide, the Wall Street Journal reported. The decline is steeper among the youngest age group: children under five in big cities dropped about 15% over the same period versus a 7% decline across the country.
Births and Long-Term Trends
Nationally, total births declined by about 1% last year, with more than 3.6 million births recorded, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). An analysis by Connor O’Brien of the Institute for Progress found that birth rates in large urban counties fell 18% between 2010 and 2024 — the largest decrease among county types.
America's biggest cities are seeing a drastic decline in the number of kids living there due to falling birth rates and several factors driving parents away (Getty Images)
Why Families Are Leaving
City officials and researchers point to multiple push factors. High housing costs, child-care affordability and safety concerns are among the most-cited reasons families have either left cities or chosen not to move in. For example, an analysis highlighted by Rocket Mortgage estimated that a typical household in New York City would need roughly 65 years to save a $265,000 down payment at current incomes and prices—an illustration of severe affordability pressures.
“Local home prices are driven by local incomes. In more affordable markets, buyers can accumulate a down payment much faster because home prices — and therefore down payment requirements — are significantly lower,” Chen Zhao, Redfin Head of Economic Research, said in a statement included with Rocket Mortgage’s analysis.
City Examples
Some large cities have seen particularly steep declines. San Jose recorded the largest drop among major cities, with children under five falling 34% over the decade. Albuquerque’s child population fell about 15%, with roughly half that change attributable to net out-migration of families. Milwaukee saw an 11% decline. New York City’s child population decreased about 8% over the past decade.
Local Responses and Outlook
Municipal leaders are experimenting with policies to make cities more family-friendly. New York City’s mayor has proposed a pilot to provide year-round, free childcare during work hours for about 40 children of city employees aged six weeks to three years. But analysts caution that childcare pilots and similar programs alone may not be sufficient to reverse long-term demographic trends driven by housing affordability, wages and public-safety perceptions.
The decline in children is due to falling birth rates and several factors driving parents away, including affordability (AFP via Getty Images)
Not every large city is losing children: of the 38 cities with populations above 500,000 analyzed by the Wall Street Journal, 13 saw child populations rise by about 7% while their total populations grew roughly 12%. Many of those growing cities are in the Sunbelt and tend to be more affordable for middle-class families.
What This Means
Declining child populations in major cities have implications for schools, housing markets, labor force composition and long-term urban planning. Policymakers will likely face pressure to address affordability, childcare capacity and public-safety concerns if they hope to retain and attract families with young children.
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute for Progress, Rocket Mortgage, Redfin.
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