New research links a prolonged drought on Flores to the disappearance of the diminutive hominin Homo floresiensis ("hobbits"). Analysis of stalagmite chemistry and oxygen isotopes in pygmy elephant teeth shows drying began around 76,000 years ago and peaked between 61,000 and 55,000 years ago. Reduced freshwater and declining elephant prey likely stressed hobbit populations and may have forced movements that coincided with the arrival of modern humans on the island.
Prolonged Drought Likely Drove Extinction of 'Hobbit' Humans on Flores, Study Finds
Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images
The archaic human species Homo floresiensis, discovered on the Indonesian island of Flores, left behind adult skeletons roughly three and a half feet tall. Their small stature inspired the popular nickname "hobbits," after J.R.R. Tolkien's diminutive characters.
New research suggests that a multi-millennium drought substantially altered the Flores environment and may have played a decisive role in the species' disappearance from the archaeological record roughly 50,000 years ago.
Evidence From Caves and Teeth
An international team of researchers reconstructed past climate using two complementary lines of evidence from Liang Bua cave, the primary fossil site for H. floresiensis. First, the chemistry of stalagmites — which accumulate mineral layers one drop at a time — preserves records of past rainfall and seasonal moisture. Second, oxygen isotope ratios measured in the teeth of pygmy elephants (a major prey species) reflect changes in the availability of fresh surface water.
"The ecosystem around Liang Bua became dramatically drier around the time Homo floresiensis vanished," said Michael Gagan, the study's lead author and a paleoclimatologist at the University of Wollongong.
Timing and Interpretation
The researchers date the onset of drier conditions to about 76,000 years ago, with the most severe arid interval between roughly 61,000 and 55,000 years ago. This window overlaps with archaeological evidence for the arrival of modern humans on Flores. The stalagmite chemistry and elephant-tooth isotopes together indicate reduced freshwater availability and a shrinking elephant population during that interval, which would have reduced a key food resource for H. floresiensis.
The authors propose that prolonged water stress and declining prey pushed hobbit populations to move in search of resources. In doing so, groups may have encountered incoming modern humans, creating additional pressures that could have accelerated their decline. The study emphasizes that climate change likely 'set the stage' rather than necessarily providing a sole cause; interactions with other factors (predation, competition, disease, or small population size) remain plausible contributors.
Context and Caveats
H. floresiensis was first described in 2003 from a small adult skeleton and additional remains later recovered at Liang Bua. Researchers have long debated why the species was so small — whether through island dwarfism or preexisting small stature — and why it disappeared. This study strengthens the case that environmental stress played a major role but does not fully rule out other causes. Dating uncertainties and the complexity of human–environment interactions mean the picture remains nuanced.
Overall, the research demonstrates how high-resolution paleoclimate proxies can illuminate the environmental background against which major biological and cultural changes occurred.
