New Texas Southern University polling of 1,600 likely Democratic primary voters (Dec. 9–11) shows Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading State Rep. James Talarico 51% to 43% (±2.45%). Crockett holds big advantages among women, voters 55+, and Black voters; Talarico performs better with white voters, men, Latinos and younger voters. The poll also finds Talarico has lower name recognition, and voters view Crockett as stronger at mobilizing the Democratic base while seeing Talarico as more likely to win over Republican voters.
Crockett Holds 51% to 43% Lead Over Talarico in Early Texas Democratic Senate Poll
Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico in first poll post-announcement
AUSTIN — U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, who announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate only days earlier, leads State Rep. James Talarico in the first statewide Democratic primary poll released after her entry.
Poll Snapshot
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University surveyed 1,600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters between Dec. 9 and Dec. 11 and released the results on Friday. The poll shows Crockett with 51% support compared with 43% for Talarico, with a reported margin of error of ±2.45%.
Campaign Reactions
In a statement, Crockett said she was humbled by the early showing and vowed to press a message focused on making life more affordable for Texans. She argued the results show she is best positioned to win a general election matchup against a Republican opponent.
“The Texas Southern poll illustrates that voters know what I know: that I’m in the best position to mobilize voters who’ve been overlooked, ignored, and excluded,” Crockett said. “Over half of Democratic voters agree that I am the candidate who will be most successful in getting infrequent voters to show up en masse. Getting those voters to show up and make their voices heard is the only way for a Democrat to win in Texas.”
A Talarico campaign spokesman said many voters are still learning about James and that he starts the race competitively. The campaign pointed to polling patterns suggesting his support grows as voters learn more about him and his message about confronting billionaire mega-donors.
Demographic Breakdown
The survey shows sharp differences by demographic group:
- Women: Crockett 57% — Talarico 36%
- Voters 55 and older: Crockett 59% — Talarico 34%
- Black voters: Crockett 89% — Talarico 8%
- White voters: Talarico 53% — Crockett 40%
- Men: Talarico 52% — Crockett 42%
- Latino voters: Talarico 51% — Crockett 41%
- Voters under 34: Talarico 63% — Crockett 34%
Name Recognition
The poll also found substantial differences in name recognition. Twenty-one percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they did not know enough about Talarico to register a favorable or unfavorable opinion; only 6% said the same about Crockett. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University and a co-author of the poll, noted that 47% of the voters unfamiliar with Talarico are Black — a group already leaning heavily toward Crockett — which could constrain his ability to grow support in that community.
“A large proportion of those voters are African Americans, a group that, at least in terms of their vote intention, is leaning heavily towards Crockett, perhaps limiting Talarico’s ability to grow among those voters who don’t know a lot about him,” Jones said.
Electability Perceptions
Survey respondents were also asked which candidate would better help Democrats break a 30-year streak of Republican statewide victories. Voters said Crockett would be more effective at energizing the Democratic base and mobilizing infrequent Democratic-leaning voters (53% to 34%). By contrast, a majority said Talarico would be better positioned to persuade habitual Republican voters to switch their vote (58% to 29%). Jones observed the two strategies can be difficult to pursue simultaneously: focusing on base mobilization may alienate crossover voters, while targeting crossover voters may fail to generate the turnout the Democratic base needs.
Next Steps
Both candidates face a 81-day window to make their case to Texas Democrats before the March 3 primary.
