AP/NORC finds President Trump at 36% approval and a net –21.8 points across major polls. He is net-positive only on border security (50/48) while health care is his weakest issue (29/69). Independents are especially negative — just 15% approve of his handling of the economy — creating a political opening for Democrats in 2025–26. The GOP now faces a consequential choice: extend ObamaCare premium supports to stabilize the midterm map or pursue cuts that could alienate swing and working-class voters.
Whole Hog Politics: AP/NORC Poll — ObamaCare Fight Deepens Trump’s Approval Slump
The latest AP/NORC survey asked voters the routine questions about President Donald Trump’s job performance and, in doing so, shed light on how the looming government shutdown and the fight over ObamaCare may shape politics in the months ahead.
Poll Snapshot
Trump’s approval in the AP/NORC poll sits at a grim 36 percent — a level not seen since the weakest stretches of his first term. Across an average of reliable national polls, the president runs 37.8 percent approval versus 59.6 percent disapproval, a net score of –21.8 points. By comparison, roughly eight years ago his net stood near –18.4 points.
Where He Stands On Issues
The poll shows only one area where the president posts a net positive: border security (50% approve, 48% disapprove). Everything else is underwater, from crime (43% approve, 55% disapprove) to health care — his weakest issue at 29% approve / 69% disapprove. Crucially, independent voters give Trump no positive ratings on any tested issue, including just 15% approval for his handling of the economy.
Context And Political Stakes
Trump began this term with unusually strong numbers compared with the start of his first term, yet his approval has dropped more than 25 points since January. In 2017, his fall was sharper but shorter-lived; this time, a Republican-controlled Congress has provided less check and more of the same to voters unhappy with the administration’s tone and results.
From the president’s perspective, poor approval ratings do not necessarily constrain his behavior: he retains enormous influence in Republican primaries, continues to generate private income and can pursue legacy projects. But low popularity among independents — the swing voters who decide midterms — presents a clear risk for Republicans heading into 2026.
The GOP Dilemma: ObamaCare Subsidies Or Ideology?
The poll flags a deeper strain within the GOP coalition. While Republicans overwhelmingly back Trump on border security and crime, support drops on the economy (69% Republican approval) and falls further on health care (59% approval within the party). That weaker showing on health care appears to reflect voter concern about affordability and premiums — especially among blue-collar voters who joined the GOP in recent cycles but expect government action to protect pocketbooks.
That creates a strategic choice for Republican leaders: support an extension of ObamaCare premium subsidies to stabilize insurance markets before the midterms — a politically awkward concession to moderates and Democrats — or insist on cutting the program and risk alienating swing and working-class voters critical to 2026. Senator Josh Hawley and other Republicans have publicly pushed to preserve premium supports, while many fiscal hard-liners resist spending to maintain the law they long opposed.
Economic Levers And Political Recovery
The president’s approval could improve if the economy strengthens: tax cuts passed this year take effect soon and might boost growth modestly, while trade concessions or favorable court rulings on import taxes could help consumers. Still, translating economic moves into quick political gains is never guaranteed and may not be enough to sway independents deeply disappointed today.
Bottom Line
The AP/NORC results show the political pressure point for Republicans: health-care affordability and the future of ObamaCare subsidies, not just immigration or crime, may determine the party’s midterm prospects. With weeks to negotiate funding and policy, Republican leaders face a consequential decision: preserve parts of ObamaCare to protect the map or double down on cuts at the risk of handing Democrats a midterm advantage.
