UN Warns World 'Very Likely' to Exceed 1.5°C Target Within a Decade — Emissions Gap Report

UN: Global Climate Action Falls Short; 1.5°C Overshoot Now 'Very Likely'

The United Nations' annual Emissions Gap Report warns that the world is "very likely" to exceed the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) within the next decade unless governments rapidly accelerate emissions reductions.

According to the report, if countries meet the climate pledges they have announced, global temperatures are still projected to rise 2.3–2.5°C by 2100. Under policies already in place, warming would reach roughly 2.8°C this century.

"Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

Global emissions grew 2.3% in 2024 compared with the previous year, led by India and followed by China, Russia and Indonesia. Wealthy Group of 20 (G20) economies account for about 75% of global emissions, and among the six largest emitters only the European Union reduced greenhouse gases in the past year.

The report highlights that recent policy shifts in the United States — including rollbacks of environmental regulations and obstacles to green-energy projects — are expected to add roughly 0.1°C of additional warming. UNEP estimates the rest of the world would need to cut an extra 2 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year to offset that increase.

Scientists warn that warming above 1.5°C greatly increases risks of catastrophic impacts. At about 1.4°C of warming, most tropical coral reefs are at risk of collapse. Even warming below 2°C can cause severe, lasting damage to ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest, with consequences for global ecosystems and communities.

"Every tenth of a degree has ramifications on communities, on ecosystems around the world," said Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a UN scientific panel on climate impacts. "It matters in heatwaves. It matters in ocean heatwaves and the destruction of coral reefs. It matters long term when we think about sea level rise."

UNEP reported that only 60 parties to the Paris Agreement — representing about 63% of global emissions — had submitted or announced new 2035 mitigation targets by the end-of-September deadline. The agency urged leaders to pursue "decisive, accelerated" cuts to reduce the likelihood and scale of an overshoot of 1.5°C.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: "Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable — starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day. But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. [Achieving] 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition."

The report's findings come days before world leaders meet at COP30 in Brazil, where the widening gap between current policies and the action needed to limit warming will be a central issue.