China's Climate Scorecard: Biggest Emitter, Record Renewables and EV Surge

China's climate scorecard: largest emitter, fastest deployer of clean energy

China emitted an estimated 15.6 gigatons CO2e in 2024, more than 30% of global greenhouse gases, according to the latest UN data. At the same time, it is the world leader in renewable installations and electric vehicle production, producing more than 70% of global EVs and electrifying transport at pace.

Emissions profile

While China’s cumulative historical emissions and per-capita emissions remain below those of the United States, they are rising and closing the gap rapidly. Coal supplied nearly 60% of China's electricity last year, although large-scale rollouts of wind, solar and nuclear are meeting much of the new demand.

Reduction targets and context

In September, Beijing announced its first numerical greenhouse-gas reduction range: a 7–10% cut by 2035. The pledge did not specify a baseline year, a key omission that makes independent assessment difficult. Many experts argue that to align with a 1.5°C pathway China would need reductions closer to ~30% from 2023 levels. Observers note, however, that China has in some cases underpromised and overachieved on targets such as renewable build-out.

Beijing previously pledged emissions would peak by 2030 and aimed for net-zero roughly three decades later; some analysts now say emissions may already have peaked or be close to doing so thanks to rapid renewable and nuclear deployment.

Renewables: ambitious but attainable

The government's climate roadmap reiterates President Xi Jinping’s pledges and sets a target of 3,600 GW of combined solar and wind capacity by 2035—about six times 2020 levels. China reported roughly 1,482 GW of wind and solar earlier this year. Hitting the 2035 goal implies installing roughly 200 GW per year, a pace that is below the record additions achieved in 2024, so many analysts think China could meet or even exceed the target ahead of schedule.

Fossil fuels, transport and the energy mix

China aims to raise the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30% by 2035. Forecasts already project a higher share—around 36% within a decade—leading many observers to view the pledge as modest. President Xi also pledged that "new energy vehicles" (including battery EVs and plug-in hybrids) will become the mainstream of new car sales; EVs already account for over 40% and nearly half of new vehicle purchases in 2024 depending on the data source.

Markets, regulation and forests

The roadmap commits to expanding China’s carbon emissions trading scheme beyond power generation to heavy industries such as cement, steel and aluminium, with signals that more high-emission sectors may be included over time. Beijing also set a target to increase forest stock to 24 billion cubic metres by 2035, up from about 20 billion today.

Outlook

China's mix of ambitious renewable capacity targets, rapid EV adoption and an expanding carbon market suggest it could substantially reduce emissions intensity. However, the modest numerical reduction range for 2035 and the absence of a clear baseline mean global observers will be watching implementation closely to judge whether pledges translate into the deeper cuts consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.