Republicans who initially planned to use New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as a suburban and upstate foil have shifted their focus to Gov. Kathy Hochul. Hochul’s middling approval outside New York City has made her a more effective target to personify concerns about taxes, crime and state policy. Democrats must weigh the benefits of her campaign resources against the political risk of being tied to an unpopular statewide figure in swing districts.
GOP Shifts Fire From Mamdani To Hochul As Midterm Liability Across New York
Republicans wanted to run against Mamdani. They're running against Hochul instead.
NEW YORK — Republicans who once hoped to spotlight New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as a suburban and upstate warning sign have largely redirected their attacks toward Gov. Kathy Hochul. As Hochul campaigns for a second term, her uneven approval outside the city has become the GOP’s preferred narrative to personify Democratic policies on taxes, crime and regulation.
Why The Shift Happened
Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist who campaigned on freezing rents and taxing the wealthy, remains popular inside New York City — polling as high as 69% favorability among city voters in an August Siena Research Institute survey. But his influence fades beyond the five boroughs, where many voters neither follow nor relate to the mayor. That limited reach prompted Republicans to target the governor, who is a visible statewide figure and easier to frame as the symbol of Albany.
GOP Messaging And Local Ads
Republican candidates across Long Island and upstate have emphasized Hochul in TV ads and campaign rhetoric. Examples include attacks linking Hochul to high taxes and portraying her as out of touch with suburban priorities. Some GOP hopefuls also blend critiques of Hochul with mentions of Mamdani in districts where the mayor still resonates.
“Outside of the New York City media market, Mamdani doesn't have the same impact,” said Marc Molinaro, a former member of Congress now running for the state Assembly. “Who do people see? They see the governor.”
Democrats’ Dilemma
Democrats face a delicate choice. On the one hand, Hochul is mobilizing the state Democratic Committee — opening field offices and providing infrastructure to support down-ballot candidates in crucial House races. On the other hand, some swing-district Democrats are reluctant to appear with a governor whose approval ratings lag outside the city.
Several Democratic candidates have publicly acknowledged the governor’s limited appeal in their districts. Blake Gendebien, running in the North Country, told supporters Hochul was “unpopular” and “underwater” there, even as he admitted he could not cite a specific reason. Others, including representatives who benefited from Hochul’s 2024 efforts, credit her with meaningful support and caution against running away from a ticket leader.
Polls And Political Arithmetic
Recent Siena polling captures the split: Hochul posts 49% unfavorable and 46% favorable statewide, but she leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by about 10 points overall. That support is heavily concentrated in New York City; she trails Blakeman by roughly eight points in the suburbs and is nearly tied upstate. By contrast, Mamdani’s high city favorability does little to move suburban and upstate voters.
Republicans are using Hochul to localize voter frustration with costs and crime — themes that could blunt the national headwinds facing GOP candidates tied to an unpopular president. Democrats counter that attacks aimed at Hochul are not as potent as lines tying GOP hopefuls to former President Donald Trump, whose favorability in New York is roughly 38%.
What’s At Stake
New York contains several competitive House districts that could determine control of the House. For Republicans, making Hochul the face of Democratic policy is a strategy to counteract national disadvantages. For Democrats, the calculation is whether to accept the governor’s assistance and risk negative framing, or to distance themselves and potentially forgo critical party resources that could determine close races.
As the campaign enters its final weeks, candidates will continue to balance local dynamics, polling, and the practical benefits of state party support. If Hochul wins re-election, her political reach and ability to influence down-ballot outcomes will grow; if she falters, Democrats may face steeper challenges holding competitive seats.
Sources: POLITICO reporting and Siena Research Institute polling cited in original coverage.
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