New Poll Shows Mixed Views of Hakeem Jeffries Among Democratic Voters — Progressive Messaging Lowers Support

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is facing skepticism from some Democratic voters, according to a new poll conducted for the progressive group A Fight Worth Having (AFWH). The survey, released as Democrats prepare for a possible House majority this November that would put Jeffries in line for the speakership, measured likely voters in three Democratic-leaning districts.

The poll focused on New York's 15th Congressional District — a heavily Hispanic and Black district represented by Rep. Ritchie Torres — Arizona's 4th, represented by Rep. Greg Stanton, and Missouri's 1st, a plurality-Black district held by Rep. Wesley Bell. New York's 15th and Missouri's 1st are solidly Democratic, while Arizona's 4th is rated D+4 by the Cook Political Report. This year both Stanton and Torres defeated progressive primary challengers; Bell also secured reelection against Cori Bush.

Key findings: In Arizona's 4th, 45% of respondents said Democrats should replace Jeffries as House leader if they retake the majority, while 34% said he should remain. In Missouri's 1st, 43% preferred a replacement versus 37% who wanted him to stay. New York's 15th was more supportive: 61% backed Jeffries staying on as caucus leader and 31% preferred someone else. When respondents were shown strongly worded progressive messaging critical of Jeffries, support for his leadership fell across all three districts.

AFWH contracted Redbox Research, led by Peter Feld, to run the poll. Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey, conducted the fieldwork. Corbin Trent, who runs AFWH and previously served as national campaign coordinator for Sen. Bernie Sanders and communications director for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said the group intentionally polled Democratic strongholds where Jeffries would be expected to perform best.

Experts cautioned against overinterpreting a single poll. Jeffery Jenkins, provost professor of public policy, political science, and law at the University of Southern California, noted that while some progressives have criticized Jeffries, it remains uncertain how they would vote in a real speakership contest: "Comments at this point are cheap talk. Actual votes cast are costly signals."

Jeffries's office did not respond to the poll directly but pointed to a July 26 speech in which he outlined his strategy for winning the midterms and governing if Democrats reclaim the House. Speaking at a United Steelworkers union hall in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, he promised to hold the Trump administration accountable, "clean up the mess at the United States Supreme Court," ban stock trading by the president, vice president, and members of Congress, and make health care more affordable.

Support among Black voters remained strong in New York's 15th, where 74% of Black respondents said they supported his leadership and 20% wanted him replaced. In Missouri's 1st, 43% of Black voters supported Jeffries, a smaller majority but still a plurality. Favorability ratings in the poll were generally solid: 66% in New York's 15th, 53% in Arizona's 4th, and 50% in Missouri's 1st. Previous polling by Embold Research for The New Republic in January found a 60% favorability among core Democratic voters, though high-profile progressives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Zohran Mamdani outpaced Jeffries in some surveys.

Corbin Trent declined to name a specific alternative to Jeffries and acknowledged that while many Democrats could potentially lead, a sizable group are not ready. Given congressional dynamics and the fact that caucus members choose the speaker, Jeffries is widely expected to retain his leadership position should Democrats win the House. The more consequential question, analysts say, is how he would manage an increasingly progressive caucus and set legislative priorities if he does hold the gavel in January.

GOP Attacks on Francesca Hong Turn Personal

Wisconsin's primary is next week, and Republican Tom Tiffany, favored in his party's gubernatorial primary, has been circulating old social-media posts by Francesca Hong, the likely Democratic nominee. Tiffany highlighted tweets in which Hong described witnessing "the worst of humanity" while working in restaurants on Valentine's Day, said in 2019 that she felt "uncomfortable" at a Culver's near "old white people who didn't think we spoke English," and joked, "Cancel Thanksgiving. Should have done that in 1621." Tiffany reposted the tweets alongside statements asserting support for the holidays.

Hong told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel the tweets were meant as jokes and told CNN that views can evolve, adding that Thanksgiving can be painful for some communities. Right-wing outlets have also revisited her past discussion of a teenage mental-health hospitalization and a bipolar diagnosis; Hong says her experiences increased her empathy and make her a stronger leader. Recent polling shows Tiffany narrowly leading Hong 43% to 40% in a hypothetical general-election matchup, and Tiffany reports roughly $5 million on hand — about ten times the cash of any Democratic candidate in the state.

Also In Brief

• Veteran wildfire fighters warned that aggressive suppression tactics ordered by the Trump administration could put crews at greater risk, Stateline reports.
• A federal appellate judge ordered that New Jersey's assault-weapons ban remain in effect while the Supreme Court considers whether to hear the case.
• The Groundwork Collaborative and Ipsos poll finds that college-educated workers are far more likely to say AI will improve their job (nearly 50%) than workers with a high school diploma (19%); Black workers are more likely than white workers to fear AI will replace them (12% vs. 4%).
• The Brookings Institution will host an online event, "Teachers at the Frontlines of Climate Change," focusing on educators in eastern and southern Africa.
• An Economic Policy Institute analysis finds the financial well-being of Black adults declined in 2025, with higher rates of layoffs and job insecurity.

Book of the Week: The Rulers

Cecilia Rikap's The Rulers: Corporate Power in the Age of AI and the Cloud argues that tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google and newer AI firms have accrued state-like power that complicates traditional antitrust approaches. Rikap suggests bold remedies, including treating data centers as public goods to rebalance corporate influence. TNR's review calls the book persuasive and timely for readers concerned about corporate consolidation and AI governance.

— Emma Janssen