Iran War Intensifies: Growing Despair in Washington After Ceasefire Collapse

Since late February, the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has escalated despite repeated claims of success by American officials. The situation has deteriorated following a June memorandum that analysts now say has essentially failed to hold.

President Trump has repeatedly asserted that Operation Epic Fury was successful or close to completion; Robin Wright, writing in The New Yorker, documents more than 30 such public claims and warns that many have not been borne out.

The ceasefire negotiated in June has, in practice, "functionally collapsed." Over the past fortnight Washington has resumed nightly air strikes, reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and reimposed sanctions. Iran has responded with attacks on US and allied targets across the Gulf and Levant — including strikes in Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.

A strike on a Jordanian airbase last week killed three US service members and wounded nearly 100 more, underscoring the human toll as the battlefield expands beyond Iran's borders.

Strategies Tried and Their Limits

To date, the US has pursued three broad approaches: attempts at regime change, a sustained bombardment campaign, and diplomatic efforts. Analysts say none have achieved their stated objectives. In Washington, officials and commentators describe a rising mood of frustration and despair over the war's trajectory.

"There is a growing sense of despair," according to reporting on the US response.

Vali Nasr, writing in the Financial Times, suggests Iranian leaders always suspected the June memorandum might be a temporary tactical pause — one intended to ease pressure on global markets while the US reinforced its forces. Additional US assets did arrive in the region, and several provisions of the deal — including coordinated passage through the Strait of Hormuz and an effective ceasefire in Lebanon — were not fully implemented, reinforcing Tehran's distrust.

Tehran’s Calculus

Iran appears intent on demonstrating two points: that the US cannot unilaterally dictate events in the region, and that Iran can withstand sustained military and economic pressure. Its strikes have targeted both military and civilian infrastructure across several states, increasing regional instability and civilian hardship.

Washington’s Current Plan

Some strategists argue the US may still achieve its goals by increasing pressure on Iran’s coastal infrastructure — targeting military installations, bridges, airports and ports — and by choking Iranian oil exports. Mark Urban (The Sunday Times) and other commentators note, however, that crippling Iran’s economy in this way would likely take months, not weeks.

In the meantime, collateral damage and humanitarian risks are rising. Ahmed Al Omran (Financial Times) reports Kuwait has borne a heavy burden from recent attacks — roughly 1,400 missile and drone strikes — hitting airports, oil facilities, the power grid and desalination plants that supply about 90% of the country’s water. Kuwaiti oil exports have fallen to roughly 20% of pre-war levels.

Outlook

Commentators worry there is no easy exit. Foreign Policy’s Will Walldorf argues the United States faces a stark choice: either accept a diminished ability to control outcomes in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s regional influence, or continue a costly confrontation with uncertain prospects. The conflict’s trajectory will depend on political decisions, military developments and how regional actors respond in the coming months.

Byline and Sources: Reporting and analysis referenced include pieces by Robin Wright (The New Yorker), Vali Nasr and Ahmed Al Omran (Financial Times), Mark Urban (The Sunday Times) and Will Walldorf (Foreign Policy).