Karl Rove used a whiteboard on Fox News to argue that a predicted Democratic "blue wave" this November may be unlikely. A new Marquette Law School poll shows likely voters nearly tied (49% D vs. 48% R), with Republican voter certainty rising and Democratic enthusiasm falling. Rove noted mid-decade redistricting favors Republicans and suggested Democrats would need a 5–6 point advantage on the ballot to win the House decisively. Former President Trump dismissed Rove’s analysis on Truth Social.
Karl Rove’s Whiteboard Breakdown: Why a November ‘Blue Wave’ May Be Losing Steam
Karl Rove busts out the handy dandy white board to show why a ‘blue wave’ might not happen in November
Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove appeared on Fox News with a whiteboard to explain why a widely predicted Democratic "blue wave" might not materialize in November’s midterm elections.
Poll Highlights
Rove and host Bill Hemmer examined a new Marquette Law School poll that found likely voters nearly split: 49% said they would back a Democratic congressional candidate and 48% a Republican. In April, that same measure showed Democrats at 53% and Republicans at 43%. The poll attributed much of the change to rising Republican enthusiasm: 59% of Republicans now say they are certain to vote (up from 56%), while Democratic certainty fell to 58% from 67%.
Veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove busted out a white board to show why a 'blue wave' may not happen in the midterm elections (Fox News)
Rove’s Whiteboard Take
Rove reviewed both the likely-voter topline and broader respondent figures written on his whiteboard. He noted that, among all respondents, the survey showed a 56% to 45% split in May on one measure and a 48% to 44% split in April on another — changes he described as small and largely within the margin of error. "If there's movement, it tends to advantage Republicans," he said.
Bill Hemmer: "Karl, look at this. This is a dead even race about the likelihood of voting, and that was not the case in April."
Karl Rove: "Having a Democrat advantage of one ain’t much. A Democrat advantage of four is significantly better. But I’m thinking they need at least a five- or six-point lead on the ballot to take the House with a significant margin."
Context And Outlook
Rove also pointed to recent mid-decade redistricting that he said has "mildly advantaged" Republicans, arguing that Democrats would need a clear 5–6 point edge to translate a national lead into substantial House gains. He emphasized that both the president and the Democratic Party carry notable unfavorability ratings — figures he said will shape close races.
Rove, a former adviser to George W. Bush, pictured here at Dick Cheney's funeral in November 2025 (Getty)
Historically, the president’s party often loses seats in midterm elections, which could still benefit Democrats if national conditions shift in their favor. Republican strategists, including Rove, warn that factors such as the ongoing conflict with Iran, high gas prices and the president’s approval ratings could influence outcomes in competitive districts.
Trump’s Response
Former President Donald Trump publicly dismissed Rove’s warnings on Truth Social, writing: "Fox News should get rid of sloppy RINO Karl Rove. He’s called ME and MAGA wrong for 11 years now ... Put Karl Rove out to pasture, NOW. He is a LOSER, and he always will be!"
Bottom line: The Marquette poll shows a tightening race driven in part by Republican enthusiasm and falling Democratic certainty. Rove argues that, given redistricting and current favorability numbers, Democrats need a more substantial lead to deliver a decisive House takeover in November.
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