Donald Trump publicly endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate, prompting a noticeable reaction in prediction markets that left the race tied at 50% between the eventual Republican nominee and Democrat James Talarico. The endorsement also included criticism of Sen. John Cornyn for his late support of Trump’s 2024 campaign. Paxton’s history of scandals — including a House impeachment and allegations of an affair — complicates GOP prospects despite roughly $88 million spent in the primary. Talarico positioned himself as a candidate fighting a donor-driven political system rather than engaging directly with the Republican infighting.
Trump’s Endorsement of Ken Paxton Tightens Texas Senate Race, Boosts Democrat’s Odds
Danielle Villasana / Getty Images(Danielle Villasana)
Donald Trump’s long‑ awaited endorsement in the Texas U.S. Senate primary — backing Attorney General Ken Paxton — produced an unexpected market reaction that has left Republican prospects looking shakier heading into the May 26 runoff.
Pepublican US Senate candidate Ken Paxton speaks to supporters at a campaign stop on May 15, 2026 in Little Elm, Texas. Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn are set for a run off later in May. / Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Quick Shift in Prediction Markets
Within hours of Trump’s public backing, the Kalshi prediction market reported a sharp change: the Texas Senate race was tied at 50% between the eventual Republican nominee and Democrat James Talarico, after Republicans had led by roughly 57% before the endorsement. Observers suggested the endorsement may have weakened Sen. John Cornyn’s standing among some Republican voters.
U.S. Senator John Cornyn narrowly defeated Paxton in a primary, forcing a runoff election. / Joel Angel Juarez / REUTERS
What Trump Said
“The Highly Respected Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, an America First Patriot, and someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT, is running for the United States Senate,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, praising Paxton’s loyalty and describing him as a “WINNER.”
Trump also criticized Senator Cornyn for being late to endorse his 2024 presidential bid, calling Cornyn “very late in backing me in what turned out to be a Historic Run for the Republican Nomination.”
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is a rising star on the left. / Joel Angel Juarez-Pool/Getty Images
Why The Endorsement Could Backfire
Paxton’s nomination carries political risks for Republicans. The Texas attorney general was impeached by the Texas House on corruption-related charges — including an allegation that he sought $3.3 million in state funds to settle a whistleblower suit — though the State Senate later acquitted him. He has also faced allegations of an affair that drew negative advertising from Cornyn during the primary; Paxton’s office dismissed a Daily Mail report as coming from a “trash blog,” while not explicitly disputing the specifics.
The stakes are high: the GOP’s campaign arm poured heavily into the primary, and the Texas contest became the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with about $88 million spent in the GOP contest alone.
Responses From The Campaigns
Representatives for Paxton and Cornyn did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Democrat James Talarico sought to capitalize on the inter‑GOP tension while keeping his campaign above the intraparty fray, framing his run as a fight against a donor-driven system rather than a conventional left‑right battle.
“For decades, John Cornyn and Ken Paxton have embodied a broken politics that enriches wealthy donors while costs skyrocket for the rest of us,” Talarico said in a campaign statement, calling his movement an effort to “take back Texas for working people.”
With the runoff a week away, the endorsement’s full impact remains uncertain, but the immediate market reaction underscores how high-profile interventions from national figures can reshape local races — sometimes in unintended ways.
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