Tuareg Rebels Say Mali Junta Will Fall After Large-Scale Offensive; North Targets Captured

Tuareg separatists and allied jihadist fighters told AFP they expect Mali’s ruling military junta to collapse after a coordinated, large-scale weekend offensive that seized key northern towns and struck strategic positions across the country.

Weekend Offensive and Casualties

Over the weekend, fighters from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) launched a dawn assault on multiple junta positions, including sites near the capital, Bamako. Officials say at least 23 people were killed in the initial fighting, a toll that authorities expect may rise as more information becomes available. Two days of intense clashes also claimed the life of Defence Minister Sadio Camara, a central architect of the junta’s security ties with Russia; his funeral is scheduled for Thursday.

Territorial Gains and New Targets

The coalition captured the key northern town of Kidal and launched attacks on other important centres, including Gao, Mopti and Sévaré. FLA spokesman Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane told AFP in Paris that the rebels now intend to take Gao, Timbuktu and Ménaka following their success in Kidal. Local sources in the Gao region reported that Malian forces have abandoned some positions.

Political and Security Implications

Junta leader Assimi Goïta, who had been out of public view for three days, described the situation as "of extreme gravity" but said in a televised address late Tuesday that it was "under control." Nonetheless, the scale and coordination of the attacks have raised fresh questions about the junta’s ability to stabilise a security environment that has been deteriorating since 2012.

Russia, Wagner and the Africa Corps

Since their 2020 takeover, Mali’s military rulers have pivoted away from former partners such as France and sought closer political and military ties with Russia. Russia’s Wagner Group fought alongside Malian forces from 2021 until it left in June 2025; it has since been reorganised and reported as the Africa Corps under Moscow’s defence ministry. The FLA has publicly demanded a permanent Russian withdrawal from Azawad and the rest of Mali.

Historical Context

The Tuareg people — a historically nomadic group present across Mali, Niger, Algeria, Libya and Burkina Faso — have long campaigned against political and economic marginalisation in northern Mali, with Kidal a focal point of their struggle. The current offensive recalls the 2012 crisis, when Tuareg rebels and jihadists briefly seized large swathes of the north before later falling into conflict with one another.

Outlook

Analysts warn the new temporary alliance between separatists and jihadists, forged about a year ago, could further complicate efforts to restore order. The immediate questions now are whether the junta can reassert control, how regional and international partners will respond, and whether the reported territorial advances will hold.