Vance vs. Rubio: CPAC Straw Poll Foreshadows Post‑Trump GOP Rivalry

At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) outside Dallas this week, Republicans debated who should lead the party after Donald Trump — and an informal straw poll underscored a budding rivalry between two of the president’s closest allies.

Vice President J.D. Vance won the CPAC straw poll for the second consecutive time, earning 53% support from attendees. Secretary of State Marco Rubio surged to 35% after barely registering in last year’s survey. The poll included roughly 1,600 conference participants and is not a scientific sample of the broader Republican electorate.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to the press following a G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting with Partner Countries before his departure at the Bourget airport in Le Bourget, outside Paris, on March 27, 2026. - Brendan Smialowski/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Why It Matters

The results highlight a split within the pro‑Trump movement: Vance projects the outsider, populist appeal that resonates with many grassroots conservatives, while Rubio has become more accepted after taking visible diplomatic and foreign‑policy roles in the administration.

Vance’s backstory and populist messaging continue to attract a strong base of support. As one attendee put it, his personal narrative — chronicled in the bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy — helps him connect with voters who feel overlooked by the political establishment.

Vice President JD Vance shakes hands with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the State Department in Washington, DC, on February 4, 2026. - Oliver Contreras/AFP/Getty Images

Rubio, by contrast, has gained credibility among some conservatives because of his high‑profile role in delicate diplomacy and the administration’s evolving foreign policy. That shift was reflected in comments from attendees who said they now find Rubio a viable heir to the movement.

“I was a little skeptical when Trump picked Rubio (for secretary of state) but, man, he has knocked it out of the park,” said Jessica Luebbers, one attendee. “It’s amazing how much he’s had on his plate.”

Some younger conservatives at CPAC said they preferred Rubio despite disagreeing with him on issues such as the Iran strikes. Others remain firmly behind Vance, believing his past opposition to new foreign conflicts and his outsider credentials are strengths.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) USA 2026 at the Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center, in Grapevine, Texas, on March 28, 2026. - Daniel Cole/Reuters

Trump’s Absence and the Kingmaker Question

Donald Trump skipped CPAC for the first time in a decade, but his influence loomed large. Many attendees said a future Trump endorsement would be decisive in any nominating fight.

“Certainly, President Trump’s endorsement will play a big role because he needs to continue his legacy,” said Henry Tian of Texas. Meanwhile, a small contingent at CPAC still expressed a desire for Trump to remain the movement’s focal point despite constitutional limits on re‑election.

Most other rumored 2028 contenders either did not attend or failed to gain traction in the straw poll. Ted Cruz received about 1% support and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. registered 0%. Overall, no candidate beyond Vance and Rubio topped 2%.

Many attendees floated the idea of a Vance‑Rubio ticket for 2028, with some expressing a preference for Vance at the top of the ticket. Whether either man ultimately runs — or whether Trump decides to endorse a successor — remains an open question heading into the next election cycle.

Bottom line: The CPAC straw poll captured a clear preference among activists for Vance while signaling growing comfort with Rubio as a future leader, setting the stage for an influential intra‑party debate about the GOP’s direction after Trump.