Major Shift: An NBC News poll finds more U.S. registered voters now view Israel negatively than positively, driven mainly by Democrats, independents and young voters. Impact: The realignment is intensifying Democratic primaries and prompting heavy outside spending by pro-Israel groups. Numbers: 40% of voters sympathize more with Palestinians versus 39% with Israelis; nearly 60% of Democrats now view Israel negatively. The poll surveyed 1,000 voters (Feb. 27–March 3; ±3.1 pts).
NBC Poll: Democratic Support For Israel Drops Sharply — reshaping primaries and party politics
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators march in Washington in April. (Probal Rashid / LightRocket via Getty Images file)(Probal Rashid)
A new NBC News poll finds a dramatic shift in American attitudes toward Israel and the Palestinian territories, with negative views of Israel now outpacing positive ones. The change is concentrated among Democrats, independents and younger voters — dynamics that are already reshaping Democratic primaries and could influence the 2028 presidential contest.
Key Poll Findings
The survey, conducted Feb. 27–March 3 among 1,000 registered voters, shows 40% of respondents say they sympathize more with Palestinians and 39% with Israelis — a reversal from 2013, when 45% sided with Israelis and 13% with Palestinians. Party breakdowns are stark: about two-thirds of Republicans still side with Israelis, while roughly two-thirds of Democrats now say they side more with Palestinians.
A pro-Palestinian encampment at Columbia University in New York City in April 2024. (Ted Shaffrey / AP file)(Ted Shaffrey)
Changing Favorability
Views of Israel have weakened significantly among Democrats and independents. Nearly 60% of Democrats and nearly 50% of independents now report a negative view of Israel, a notable change from polling conducted in November 2023. Favorability toward the Palestinian territories has risen in those same groups.
Young Voters Lead The Shift
Voters under 35 show some of the largest moves: where 26% viewed Israel positively and 37% negatively in 2023, the latest poll finds nearly two-thirds of that cohort now view Israel negatively, and about six in 10 sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israelis.
Pro-Israel protesters in Times Square in Manhattan in March 2025. (Adam Gray / Getty Images file)(Adam Gray)
Impact On Democratic Primaries
Those public-opinion shifts are intensifying intraparty fights. Pro-Israel groups — including AIPAC-aligned super PACs such as United Democracy Project (UDP) — have spent heavily to defend candidates who support Israel. That spending has in some cases provoked backlash from progressives and helped turn several primaries into nationalized, high-dollar contests.
“This is unrecognizable in terms of where America was, and the Democratic Party was, for a 20-, 30-year history,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, one of the firms that conducted the poll alongside Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and Hart Research Associates. McInturff warned that the 2028 Democratic presidential primary will be fought on very different terrain on this issue.
Examples From Recent Races
Recent primaries and special elections illustrate the stakes: Rep. Wesley Bell, backed by UDP in 2024, defeated progressive Rep. Cori Bush in Missouri. In North Carolina, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam came close to defeating Rep. Valerie Foushee in a rematch focused on Israel-related spending and positions; Foushee later said she would not accept donations from AIPAC and co-sponsored legislation to restrict some arms sales to Israel.
Pro-Palestinian protesters gather outside security fencing near the White House in July. (Kent Nishimura / Getty Images file)(Kent Nishimura)
In New Jersey and Chicago, heavy outside spending and competing endorsements have shaped crowded Democratic primaries, pitting pro-Israel candidates backed by large outside groups against progressive challengers who criticize Israeli policy and call for restrictions on U.S. military aid.
Where Republicans And Independents Stand
Republican opinion on Israel has shifted only modestly since 2023: positive ratings fell from 63% to 54%, but roughly two-thirds of Republicans still sympathize more with Israelis. Independents show a larger swing: positive views of Israel among independents fell from 40% in November 2023 to 21% in the current poll, while negative views rose from 22% to 48%.
Context And Methodology
Pollsters note the turning point occurred after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza. The Oct. 7 attack resulted in roughly 1,200 people killed and about 251 taken captive, according to widely reported figures; Gaza health authorities say the Israeli campaign has produced very high casualties in Gaza. The poll was fielded as tensions with Iran were rising and just before a separate attack on a Michigan synagogue that the FBI called a targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters Feb. 27–March 3 via a combination of telephone interviews and an online survey delivered by text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com.
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