Myanmar’s military government has launched multi‑stage elections it says will restore normal governance, but international observers and rights groups call the ballot tightly controlled and unfree. Major opposition parties including Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD are excluded, voting is cancelled in conflict zones and over one million Rohingya refugees remain disenfranchised. Electronic voting machines that block write‑ins are being used, and the constitution reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for the military. Results are expected in late January.
How Myanmar’s Junta-Run Election Is Designed — And Why Its Outcome Is Doubtful
Infographic map of Myanmar showing areas where the military junta's elections will take place, starting December 28.(AFP/AFP)
Myanmar's military government has staged multi-phase nationwide elections it presents as a return to democratic normality five years after the 2021 coup. International observers and rights groups say the polls are tightly controlled and unlikely to produce a freely chosen civilian government.
Who Is Running?
The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party is the largest organized participant, fielding more than one-fifth of all candidates, according to the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL). The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi and the landslide winner of 2020, is not participating: the party and many of its affiliates have been dissolved or barred from contesting.
Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned on charges widely regarded by rights groups as politically motivated. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners estimates about 22,000 political detainees remain in junta custody.
Who Can — And Cannot — Vote?
Large parts of the country are controlled by armed opponents — a mix of pro‑democracy resistance groups and ethnic armed organisations — and polling is not being held in those areas. A military-run census admitted it could not gather data for an estimated 19 million people of Myanmar’s roughly 50 million, citing security constraints.
Authorities have cancelled voting in 65 of the 330 elected lower-house seats (nearly one in five). More than one million Rohingya refugees who fled the 2017 crackdown and now live in Bangladesh are excluded from the process.
How Is A Winner Decided?
Parliamentary seats are being allocated through a mix of first‑past‑the‑post and proportional representation systems that ANFREL says favour larger, better-resourced parties. Registration thresholds for nationwide contesting parties were tightened: only six of 57 parties standing met the criteria to run broadly.
Under the military-drafted constitution, 25% of parliamentary seats are reserved for the armed forces regardless of election results. The lower house, upper house and military bloc each choose a vice president, and the combined assembly then selects the president from those nominees. Official results are expected in late January.
Run-Up, Restrictions And Observation
ANFREL describes the Union Election Commission overseeing the vote as an instrument of the military rather than an independent body. Its head, Than Soe, was appointed after the coup and is subject to EU travel restrictions and sanctions for "undermining democracy".
Since the coup, major social media platforms including Facebook, Instagram and X have been intermittently blocked or restricted, sharply limiting information flows. The junta has enacted strict new laws criminalizing protest and criticism of the election, punishable by up to a decade in prison. More than 200 people have reportedly been pursued under the new measures for actions ranging from private social‑media messages to leafleting and defacing campaign posters.
Myanmar invited international observers, but few countries accepted. State media reported that a monitoring delegation from Belarus — whose government has itself been widely condemned for cracking down on protests — arrived to observe the vote.
Key context: Rights groups say the combination of party bans, cancelled seats, restricted information and a constitution that guarantees military power makes the election unlikely to restore genuine democratic governance.
What To Watch
Observers will be watching turnout where voting is permitted; the transparency of results reporting; whether security concerns suppress participation; and international reactions to the announced outcome.
