A 31-19 rejection in the Indiana Senate of a Trump-backed redistricting plan — driven by more than half the state GOP breaking ranks — suggests modest but meaningful cracks in the former president's control of the Republican Party. The vote, combined with a small group of House Republicans who pushed for release of Epstein-related materials and public splits with Marjorie Taylor Greene, highlights growing dissent. Yet Trump remains broadly influential across the party, and many state legislatures continue to advance his priorities.
Signs of Strain: Indiana GOP Rejects Trump-Backed Map as Dissent Grows
A decisive rejection of a redistricting plan championed by former President Donald Trump has provided one of the clearest signals yet that his control over the Republican Party may be showing small but meaningful cracks.
Indiana Vote Undercuts White House Effort
On Thursday, Indiana state senators voted 31-19 to defeat a congressional redistricting map that Mr. Trump had vigorously promoted. More than half of the state Senate's 40 Republican members broke with the former president, sinking a plan that critics said would likely have handed Republicans all nine of the state's U.S. House seats.
Pressure from Trump intensified in the days leading up to the vote. Advocacy group Heritage Action — typically aligned with Trump-friendly conservative causes — warned on social media that the president had “made it clear” federal funding could be threatened if the plan failed. Those warnings, however, did not sway enough lawmakers.
Why Lawmakers Broke Ranks
Former Indiana governor Mitch Daniels described the result as partly an “instinctual rebellion against being ordered around, especially by outsiders.” Several Republican senators said their constituents opposed the map because it risked undermining public confidence in elections and government institutions.
“I see no justification that outweighs the harms it would inflict upon the people’s faith in the integrity of our elections and our system of government,”
— State Sen. Spencer Deery (R)
Broader Context: Other GOP Breaks
The Indiana episode follows other recent flashes of GOP independence. Last month, four House Republicans — Thomas Massie, Lauren Boebert, Nancy Mace and Marjorie Taylor Greene — joined Democrats to advance a discharge petition demanding release of materials related to the late Jeffrey Epstein, resisting intense pressure from Trump and his allies.
Relations between Trump and Greene have frayed publicly. Greene criticized the party’s direction on foreign policy and domestic priorities, labeled Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide,” and accused Trump of contributing to threats she has received. Trump, for his part, has ridiculed her publicly. Greene is expected to leave Congress in January, a year before her term ends.
Limits to the Trend
These incidents point to growing, but still limited, fissures in Trump’s influence. Polling from YouGov and The Economist this week showed 55% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance while 41% approve. Yet in many states — including Texas, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina — GOP legislatures have advanced maps consistent with Trump’s preferences.
Even the Epstein-related effort never expanded beyond a handful of Republican backers before Mr. Trump backed away. House Speaker Mike Johnson also complicated the petition's prospects by delaying the swearing-in of Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) for more than seven weeks — a delay Johnson says was related to a government shutdown rather than the Epstein matter.
Bottom Line
For now, Mr. Trump remains a dominant force in Republican politics: many GOP figures seek his endorsement and follow his shifting priorities. But the Indiana vote, the small group of House defections on the Epstein documents, and public spats with figures like Greene show signs of erosion — modest but notable — in his once near-absolute grip.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
