Tehran’s Dams Run Dry: Iran Faces Severe Water Crisis and Possible Rationing

Tehran's dams run dry as Iran confronts a severe water crisis

Authorities across Iran are racing to secure drinking water, with the capital Tehran among the most threatened as the country contends with overlapping environmental, economic and geopolitical stresses.

President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that if significant rain does not fall by next month, Tehran — a city of roughly 10 million people — could face formal water rationing and, in an extreme scenario, partial evacuation. While many experts say evacuation is unlikely, the warning underscores the scale of the crisis confronting a nation of more than 90 million.

Iran is now in its sixth consecutive year of drought. This summer's heatwaves pushed temperatures above 50 °C (122 °F), and the water year that ended in late September 2025 ranked among the driest on record. By early November 2025 the country had received just 2.3 mm (0.09 in) of precipitation — an 81 percent drop from the historical average for the same period, according to the Meteorological Organization.

Reservoir data show a dramatic deterioration. Nineteen dams are now below 5 percent capacity — up from nine three weeks earlier — and dozens more are in poor condition, the Water Resources Management Company reported. The five main dams that supply Tehran (Lar, Latyan, Karaj/Amir Kabir, Taleqan and Mamloo) average roughly 10 percent capacity. A viral video from the Karaj reservoir showed a swimmer walking in areas that were previously submerged, starkly illustrating the drawdown.

Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said the state would imminently begin rationing water and could impose nightly shutoffs nationwide if necessary. He attributed some supply strain to infrastructure damage during a 12-day conflict with Israel in June and warned that high-consuming urban users would be penalized. Officials have encouraged residents to buy water storage tanks and reduce consumption.

However, household use accounts for less than 8 percent of total water demand in Iran; more than 90 percent is consumed by agriculture. Experts say demand management in farming, irrigation modernization and crop choices are essential but politically and economically sensitive because agriculture remains a vital source of livelihoods in many rural areas.

Practices over decades have compounded the problem: large dam and well construction, heavy groundwater extraction, ill-suited crops, outdated irrigation systems and transfers of water across basins. Excessive groundwater pumping has led to widespread land subsidence and ecosystem damage in regions such as Isfahan and Sistan and Baluchestan. Sanctions and limited foreign investment have hampered large-scale infrastructure rehabilitation.

Farshid Vahedifard, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Tufts University: Planning must shift from supply-driven engineering to resilience-based management focused on groundwater recharge and aquifer restoration.

Kaveh Madani, director of the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health: Iran faces not only water stress but a broader resource strain; past reliance on technological fixes created a misleading sense of abundance.

State figures cited by domestic media indicate roughly one-third of national water is wasted or consumed without productive return: about 15 percent lost to leaks and physical losses, and more than 16 percent lost to illegal consumption, free public use and metering errors. Authorities have pursued short-term responses such as desalination projects and inter-basin transfers, but experts warn these do not substitute for systemic reform.

Specialists call for a suite of long-term measures: transparent data sharing, targeted infrastructure investment, integrated water-energy-agriculture planning, community participation, and policies that prioritize aquifer recovery and equitable allocation. They also stress that reforms will require difficult political choices and sustained commitment across governments.

As Iran waits on the next rains, the immediate priorities are to protect drinking supplies, limit social disruption and implement measures that build resilience for the future. Equitable water management, experts say, is central not only to environmental stability but to social cohesion and national security.