Damaged Baikonur Launch Pad: When Will Russia Resume Crewed Flights to the ISS?

Damaged Baikonur Launch Pad Raises Questions About Future Crew Flights

On Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27, a Soyuz rocket launched three crew members to the International Space Station (ISS) from Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft — carrying NASA astronaut Chris Williams and Russian cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev — docked with the station the same day, and the crew was reported safe.

Post-Launch Damage and Initial Assessment

Routine post-launch inspections revealed damage to multiple components of Launch Pad 6 at Site 31, Roscosmos said in a statement. The agency is assessing the pad’s condition and has indicated that spare parts are available and repairs are planned.

“The launch pad's condition is currently being assessed,” Roscosmos said, adding that spare components are available and repairs will be completed shortly.

What Likely Happened

Independent observers and infrastructure experts have weighed in. Brian Harvey, co-author of The Atlas of Space Rocket Launch Sites, suggested that a combination of vibration and heat during ascent, together with roller pins on the service tower that were improperly installed or missing, likely caused part of the tower to topple. Harvey emphasized this is an unofficial assessment.

He also noted the failure occurred seconds after the rocket had cleared the pad, and that the affected structure was the retracted service cabin rather than the umbilicals removed at T‑33 and T‑12 seconds, so the crew was not in danger.

Repair Options and Timeline

Harvey expects technicians may cannibalize compatible parts from other service towers at Baikonur or from towers at Plesetsk Cosmodrome. He said Vostochny Cosmodrome could be an option for equipment transfers because of similar latitude and rail links, though Roscosmos has not publicly confirmed that route.

Looking at historical precedent, Harvey recalled a somewhat comparable incident in 1966 that took months to fix, but he estimates today’s repairs could take roughly three months given the pressure to support crewed missions. Roscosmos has set a goal to restore Baikonur operations by the end of March.

Operational Impact

The timing limits near-term operational disruption. The next ISS crew exchange is not until July, and the upcoming crewed flight to the station is SpaceX Crew-12, currently targeted for mid-February from Florida. U.S.-launched cargo missions can cover many logistics needs, but Russia’s next Progress resupply mission — due in a few weeks at the time of the incident — will be delayed.

Responses From NASA and Commentators

NASA said it is aware Roscosmos is inspecting Launch Pad 6 at Site 31, and that it coordinates closely with international partners to ensure safe ISS operations. A Roscosmos response to media questions was not available at the time of reporting.

Space communicator Scott Manley called suggestions that Baikonur’s role is finished “overly dramatic,” while cautioning the incident could mark an inflection point depending on forthcoming assessments and repairs.

What’s Next

Further action will depend on technical inspections, repair progress and decisions by Roscosmos leadership, including Director General Dmitry Bakanov. For now, the blast marks have interrupted normal operations at Baikonur but — according to experts quoted in reports — do not appear to pose an immediate threat to crew safety or to the ISS schedule beyond the delayed Progress resupply.

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Note: This article summarizes available public statements and expert commentary at the time of reporting. Details may change as Roscosmos completes its inspection and issues formal findings.