The U.N. Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2025 finds only a modest slowdown in global warming: current national pledges point to 2.3–2.5°C of 21st-century warming, making the 1.5°C Paris target unlikely. Methodology updates trimmed the estimate by ~0.1°C, but overall emissions trends show little real improvement. The report warns a U.S. withdrawal and the low rate of updated national pledges could erase gains; U.N. officials call for a 55% emissions cut from 2019 levels by 2035 to preserve a chance at 1.5°C.
U.N. Report: Global Warming Only Slightly Slowed — 1.5°C Paris Goal Now Unlikely
The U.N. Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2025 finds only a modest slowdown in global warming: current national pledges point to 2.3–2.5°C of 21st-century warming, making the 1.5°C Paris target unlikely. Methodology updates trimmed the estimate by ~0.1°C, but overall emissions trends show little real improvement. The report warns a U.S. withdrawal and the low rate of updated national pledges could erase gains; U.N. officials call for a 55% emissions cut from 2019 levels by 2035 to preserve a chance at 1.5°C.
01:02, 05.11.2025Environment
U.N. report finds only modest slowdown in warming; 1.5°C target increasingly out of reach
The U.N. Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global temperatures have only slowed slightly over the past year, leaving substantial climate risks and potential damage ahead. Based on current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the report projects 21st-century warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C, well above the Paris Agreement aim of limiting warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
"A temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable — starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s," said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. "The path to a livable future gets steeper by the day. But this is no reason to surrender. It's a reason to step up and speed up."
The new projection is a small improvement from last year's estimate of 2.6°C to 2.8°C. The report attributes part of the downward revision to methodological changes in how warming trajectories are calculated, which reduced estimates by about 0.1°C. However, the UNEP authors caution that this tweak masks very little real progress in emissions trends: cumulative warming this century could still reach 3.0°C if deeper cuts are not made.
The assessment warns that any rollback of international commitments — including the report's concerns about a potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement — could erase recent gains. It also notes that fewer than one-third of countries that remain party to the accord have submitted updated NDCs to strengthen their greenhouse-gas targets.
How much more action is needed?
U.N. officials say global greenhouse-gas emissions must fall by 55% from 2019 levels by 2035 to keep a viable chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. A smaller but still substantial reduction — about 35% by 2035 — would likely limit warming to no more than 2°C. The report also notes that projected warming has eased since the Paris Agreement was adopted a decade ago, dropping from an earlier range of roughly 3.0–3.5°C to the current estimate.
Solutions and outlook
The UNEP report emphasizes that the technologies needed for deep emissions cuts — including expanded wind and solar power, energy efficiency, electrification, and other low-carbon solutions — are available today. The authors stress that policy, finance and faster implementation of these technologies are crucial if the world is to move from modest improvements to the much larger emissions reductions required.