The CDU remained the largest party in Lower Saxony local elections but lost ground as the AfD surged to 16.5% from 4.6% in 2021. The SPD fell to 24.5%, while Die Linke more than doubled its share. The results follow the AfD’s near-44% victory in Saxony-Anhalt and have renewed questions about Friedrich Merz’s leadership ahead of state votes in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
AfD Surges in Lower Saxony Local Elections as CDU Holds Lead but Loses Ground
AfD's rise is a warning for Mr Merz - Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters
Friedrich Merz's conservative CDU remained the largest party in Sunday’s local elections in the western German state of Lower Saxony, but the party suffered losses as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) more than tripled its support from 2021.
According to a projection by polling institute Infratest dimap for public broadcaster NDR, the CDU was on track to win 27.7% of the vote, ahead of the centre-left SPD on 24.5%. The AfD made the biggest advance, rising to 16.5% from just 4.6% in the comparable local elections five years earlier. Left party Die Linke also improved, increasing its share from 2.8% to 5.9%.
While the CDU remained comfortably ahead of the AfD in the projection, its statewide share fell by four percentage points from 31.7% in 2021. The SPD experienced a steeper decline, dropping from 30% to 24.5%.
Context: The results follow a dramatic AfD victory last week in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the party won nearly 44% of the vote. Lower Saxony, a state of roughly eight million residents, was viewed as an early test of whether the AfD’s momentum could spread beyond its traditional eastern strongholds.
Demonstrations against the AfD were held in Berlin on Saturday, reflecting heightened public concern over the party’s gains.
Protesters attend a demonstration against the far-Right AfD in Berlin on Saturday - RALF HIRSCHBERGER/AFP
The outcome has intensified internal speculation about Mr Merz’s future after Die Zeit reported senior CDU figures had discussed how he might eventually be replaced and were weighing potential successors. Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, told Bild am Sonntag that his party would "under no circumstances" move to topple Mr Merz.
There were, however, local victories for the CDU. In Wolfsburg — the auto-industry city hit hard by the sector’s downturn — CDU incumbent Dennis Weilmann won the mayoral contest outright with 50.1%. His SPD rival, Karsten Schneider, received 15.5%, narrowly ahead of the AfD candidate Thomas Schick on 14.1%.
Attention now turns to state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern next Sunday, contests that could be more consequential for Mr Merz and for the national balance of power.
Note: The Lower Saxony figures cited are projections from Infratest dimap; official statewide results were expected on Monday morning.
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