PROMISE proposed reusing Curiosity and Perseverance engineering models (MAGGIE and OPTIMISM) to create a lunar rover, but an independent review estimates total costs at $723 million to $1.33 billion. Launch and landing are separately estimated at $234 million to $320 million. Substantial engineering, certification, and power-integration work would still be required, and converting the test models could disrupt ongoing testing. NASA has not released its own detailed cost estimate, so the project's viability remains uncertain.
PROMISE Lunar Rover May Not Save Money: Recycled Mars Hardware Could Cost $723M–$1.33B
Credit: Amazon
NASA is reconsidering a proposal to build the PROMISE lunar rover by reusing engineering test hardware from the Curiosity and Perseverance Mars programs after independent cost estimates suggested the approach may not deliver the expected savings.
Background
PROMISE (Polar Rover for Observation, Mapping, and In-Situ Exploration) was proposed as a faster, lower-cost way to get a capable science rover on the Moon by adapting two Earth-based engineering models known as MAGGIE and OPTIMISM. Those models were originally built to validate hardware, software and driving systems on Earth before the operational Mars rovers launched.
Cost Concerns
An independent review by Casey Dreier of The Planetary Society estimates total program costs between $723 million and $1.33 billion. That total includes separate launch and landing cost estimates of $234 million to $320 million, with the remaining sum attributed to engineering, integration and program-level expenses.
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Why Reuse May Not Be Cheap
Repurposing ground-test hardware is not a simple hardware swap. Equipment designed for Earth-based testing must be certified for spaceflight and for the Moon's harsh environment. Engineers would need to redesign and validate communications systems, adapt or integrate a space-rated plutonium radioisotope power system, and perform a range of environmental and safety verifications before flight.
Those activities require extensive engineering work, and the engineering models are still performing active testing roles. Removing MAGGIE and OPTIMISM from their current duties to convert them for lunar use could disrupt other test programs, introducing schedule and cost risk.
"Regardless of whether one agrees with every estimate… one thing is clear: PROMISE is far from a 'freebie,'" said Casey Dreier after reviewing the proposal.
Next Steps
NASA has not published a detailed, agency-owned cost breakdown for adapting the engineering models into a flight-ready lunar rover. The mission's future will likely depend on whether engineers can reduce adaptation and certification costs while preserving essential testing capacity for other programs. If adaptation proves costly relative to building purpose-designed hardware or to program budgets, the agency may decide not to proceed.
Reporting via The Register. This article consolidates the independent cost assessment and NASA program considerations available at the time of publication.
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