Nate Silver suggests that, apart from the Iran war, much of this summer's Trump coverage has been trivial or comedic, possibly indicating Americans are "moving on" from him as the central news figure. He cites examples such as Trump lobbying FIFA over a red card and a mocking joke at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. On the 2026 midterms, Silver says markets put Democrats at 80–85% to retake the House (40–45% for the Senate), while he personally estimates an 85–90% chance for the House. He names an unpopular president, economic anxiety, the Iran war, midterm history, and incumbent backlash as key factors favoring Democrats, even as redistricting helps Republicans in places.
Nate Silver: Are Americans ‘Moving On’ From Trump As Coverage Grows Tepid?
Nate Silver, the statistician and political forecaster behind FiveThirtyEight, suggested this weekend that President Donald Trump may be losing his status as the dominant figure in the U.S. news cycle.
"It's kind of striking how, apart from Iran, most of the Trump-related stories this summer have been boring and dumb (reflection pool, White House Correspondents' Dinner) or kind of funny (FIFA). Maybe we're moving on from him being the central figure in American politics." — Nate Silver, on X
Why Silver Sees The Coverage Cooling
Silver says that aside from substantive developments tied to the Iran war — which he calls a still-significant story — much of the summer's Trump headlines have felt trivial or comedic. He points to lighthearted or unserious episodes getting disproportionate attention, which could indicate the public and media are reallocating their attention away from Trump.
Notable Examples
One example was Trump lobbying FIFA president Gianni Infantino to overturn a red card shown to U.S. striker Folarin Balogun during the World Cup — an episode that drew headlines but had little practical impact, as the U.S. lost 4-1 to Belgium in a later match. Trump praised Infantino for the "great decision" and boasted the U.S. had become a "soccer country."
Another incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Trump mocked CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins by saying she resembled transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney. The remark provoked sharp criticism from many liberal commentators and media figures.
Midterm Forecasts And Political Factors
In a June interview on the All-In Podcast, Silver reviewed current prediction-market odds and his own projections for the 2026 midterms. He said markets place Democrats at roughly 80–85% to reclaim the House and 40–45% to win the Senate. Silver added he personally thinks the markets slightly understate Democrats' chances for the House and gave them an 85–90% probability.
Silver cited several dynamics favoring Democrats: an unpopular incumbent president, voter anxiety about the economy, the political fallout from the Iran war, the historical tendency for the president's party to lose ground in midterms, and a broader "incumbent backlash" seen domestically and internationally. He also acknowledged that redistricting still gives Republicans an advantage in some contests, but said those advantages face substantial headwinds.
Bottom line: Silver argues that while serious issues like the Iran war still drive consequential coverage, much of the lighter, repetitive Trump coverage this summer may signal a shift in public attention away from him as the central political newsmaker.
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