Snapshot: A CPAC straw poll held in Grapevine, Texas, found Senator JD Vance leading with about 53% and Senator Marco Rubio at 35% among more than 1,600 voters. While CPAC results are not a reliable predictor of a future nominee, they show consolidation of activist support behind Vance and Rubio. The conference also underscored ongoing divisions within the MAGA-aligned coalition over issues such as the Epstein files and U.S. foreign policy.
JD Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll as Rubio Follows; Conservatives Show Consolidation
An attendee reacts during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Grapevine, Texas.Photograph: Daniel Cole/Reuters(Photograph: Daniel Cole/Reuters)
A straw poll conducted at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Grapevine, Texas, found Senator JD Vance to be the top choice among attendees for the next Republican presidential nominee, with roughly 53% of votes. Senator Marco Rubio finished second with about 35% of the more than 1,600 participants who voted, Reuters reported.
What the poll shows
Organized annually by the American Conservative Union, CPAC is a major gathering of conservative activists and Republican figures. Its straw poll is a useful snapshot of activist sentiment but is not a reliable predictor of the eventual Republican nominee.
The results suggest a consolidation of support among CPAC voters around Vance and Rubio, with no other candidate receiving more than 2% of the vote. While the poll reflects the views of highly engaged activists, it does not necessarily represent the broader Republican electorate.
Fissures within the conservative movement
Coverage of this year’s conference also highlighted internal divisions within the broader MAGA-aligned coalition. Controversies such as the release of the Epstein files and disagreements over U.S. policy in the Middle East have fuelled tensions and caused some prominent conservative figures to publicly distance themselves from parts of the movement.
A Politico poll earlier this year indicated that many of Vance’s supporters still express loyalty to former President Donald Trump, underscoring overlapping but sometimes competing currents within the conservative base.
Context from previous CPAC polls
At last year’s CPAC in Maryland, Vance also led the straw poll with 61% of the vote; Steve Bannon took 12% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis polled at 7%. Rubio, who received about 3% in that prior poll, has gained ground this year in part because of his high-profile stances on foreign policy and national-security debates.
Note: CPAC straw poll results reflect the views of convention attendees and activists, and should be interpreted as an indicator of conservative movement sentiment rather than a forecast of the party’s eventual nominee.
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