Primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas produced major upsets and set up consequential runoffs. In Texas, James Talarico’s upset of Jasmine Crockett gives Democrats a more electable Senate nominee, while Attorney General Ken Paxton forced a May 26 runoff with Sen. John Cornyn. Several incumbents, including Rep. Dan Crenshaw, were defeated or pushed into tight contests, underscoring volatility and costly intra-party battles ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Primary Shocks in Texas and North Carolina Set Up High-Stakes Runoffs and Upsets
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D-TX) addresses supporters on election night on March 03, 2026 in Austin, Texas. - John Moore/Getty Images
Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas went to the polls on Tuesday for the first primary day of the 2026 midterm cycle, and the biggest headlines came out of Texas, where a pair of competitive Senate primaries reshaped the midterm map.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks during a primary election watch party Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez) - Tony Gutierrez/AP
Big Democratic Upset: Talarico Tops Crockett
State Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, emerging as what many Democrats see as the party’s most electable nominee in a state Democrats have not carried in a statewide race since 1994. Crockett’s late entry—only three months before Election Day—limited her ability to build traditional campaign infrastructure and run a sustained advertising effort. At times her messaging emphasized process and grievance more than a clear policy agenda, and a late-campaign incident in which her staff removed an Atlantic reporter from an event raised further questions about campaign discipline.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, and Sen. John Cornyn at their respective primary election night watch events on Tuesday. - AP/Getty Images
GOP Runoff: Paxton Forces Cornyn To A May 26 Rematch
On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton, despite legal challenges and personal controversies, forced a runoff with Sen. John Cornyn; that contest is set for May 26. Paxton’s past legal troubles and reported personal issues could complicate his ability to consolidate support among voters who backed third-place finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt. At the same time, some Republicans and national strategists may prefer Cornyn as the more electable general-election candidate. Former President Donald Trump praised all three major GOP contenders during the primary, and media reports suggested it is "very likely" he will intervene in the runoff.
Sen. Ted Cruz holds a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on December 15, 2025 . - Heather Diehl/Getty Images
Impact And Implications
Talarico would enter the general election as an underdog against either Cornyn or Paxton, but his nomination makes Texas more competitive and forces Republicans into an additional 12 weeks of an expensive, intra-party fight. For Democrats, the result presents a rare opportunity to contest a statewide seat; for Republicans, it means an extended, increasingly bitter primary season that could dull general-election prospects.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw speaks at a the US Capitol on February 14, 2024. - Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Incumbents On The Ropes
Tuesday also produced notable defeats and tight contests for incumbents. Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost his primary to State Rep. Steve Toth, a result amplified by an unusual ad from Sen. Ted Cruz supporting Toth. Crenshaw’s occasional independence from the MAGA wing and changes in the state’s congressional map contributed to his loss.
Rep. Tony Gonzales speaks to media outside the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on July 22, 2024. - Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP/File
Other close or unresolved races included longtime Rep. Al Green in a tight contest with Rep. Christian Menefee under a new map, and North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee facing a well-funded progressive challenger, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, in a heavily Democratic district.
Rep. Chip Roy attends a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on January 14, 2026. - Nathan Howard/Reuters
Runoff Rescues And Lingering Scandals
GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales avoided an immediate loss and will face Brandon Herrera again in a runoff after revelations about an alleged affair with a staffer who later died by suicide prompted calls for his resignation. While surviving the primary gives Gonzales a path to remain in office, it also forces Republicans to manage a politically toxic situation through the summer.
Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Chip Roy placed a distant second in the GOP primary for Texas attorney general and appears likely to be the underdog against state Sen. Mayes Middleton in any runoff.
Broader Context
Partly fueled by frustration with House governance, more than two dozen House members are running for statewide office this cycle. Early returns suggest mixed success for that cohort, and Tuesday’s results highlighted volatility and intra-party tensions that could influence control of Congress heading into November.
Bottom line: Talarico’s upset and the Paxton-Cornyn runoff make Texas a more competitive battleground, several incumbents are vulnerable or beaten, and Republicans now face costly, acrimonious primaries that could affect their fall prospects.
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