The House Republican Conference fell this week from 220 to 218 members after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned and Rep. Doug LaMalfa died unexpectedly. With Rep. Jim Baird temporarily unavailable due to a serious car crash and Rep. Thomas Massie frequently opposing GOP measures, House leaders now have virtually no margin on party-line votes. Special elections to fill vacancies are months away, and Democrats are expected to pick up a seat — all of which make Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority fragile heading into 2026.
House GOP Majority Shrinks to the Bare Minimum — What That Means for Speaker Johnson
At the start of the week the House Republican Conference numbered 220 members, giving the GOP a slim majority in the chamber. That edge began to erode when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia resigned immediately after becoming eligible for a congressional pension, reducing the conference to 219.
One day later the conference lost another member when California Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa died unexpectedly. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer announced the news:
"Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa of California has died," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said Tuesday morning.
LaMalfa, who represented California’s 1st Congressional District, was a fourth-generation rice farmer and a Northern California native. He previously served in both the California State Assembly and State Senate before being elected to the U.S. House in 2012.
LaMalfa’s death brings Speaker Mike Johnson’s conference to 218 members — the exact number needed for a bare majority in the 435-member House.
Compounding the GOP’s fragility, Rep. Jim Baird of Indiana recently suffered serious injuries in a car crash. Although he is expected to recover and return to his duties, he will be unavailable for votes in the near term.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson appears at a news conference on Oct. 20, 2025, on Capitol Hill.(Andrew Harnik / Getty Images)
Practical Impact
On strict party-line votes, Republicans now have only a razor-thin cushion — and that assumes full attendance, which is uncommon during an election year. With Baird sidelined the effective margin shrinks further. Add Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who routinely breaks with GOP leadership on key roll calls, and Republican leaders in practice have almost no margin for error.
Special elections to fill the vacant GOP seats are months away, so any replacements will not immediately restore the conference’s strength. Meanwhile, a forthcoming special election in a heavily Democratic Texas district is expected to give Democrats an additional seat, further narrowing the GOP’s working advantage.
There has also been speculation that other House Republicans, including New York’s Elise Stefanik and South Carolina’s Nancy Mace, are weighing resignations before their terms end — a development that would add more uncertainty for the majority.
What Comes Next
With the majority at its minimum threshold, the House GOP’s legislative agenda and ability to pass party-line measures hinge on near-perfect attendance and unity. Leadership will likely need to negotiate with holdouts, manage special-election timetables, and brace for the political and procedural risks of a one-seat (or effectively no-seat) advantage heading into 2026.
By most measures, 2025 was a difficult year for Speaker Johnson and House GOP leaders, and this recent string of vacancies and potential departures makes 2026 look even more precarious.
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