A Starlink satellite and a Chinese spacecraft narrowly avoided a collision this month, passing about 650 feet (200 meters) apart. Low Earth orbit already contains at least 24,000 tracked objects, and projections put the number of satellites as high as 70,000 by 2030. Research shows two orbiting objects come within one kilometer of each other roughly every 22 seconds, raising concerns about cascading debris (Kessler syndrome). Operators can maneuver satellites to avoid impacts, but reliable tracking and international coordination are essential.
Starlink and Chinese Satellite Narrowly Miss Collision as Low Earth Orbit Gets Crowded
Chart enumerating objects in Earth orbit
A SpaceX Starlink satellite and a Chinese spacecraft came dangerously close this month, passing within roughly 650 feet (about 200 meters) of each other — a near-miss that highlights the growing congestion in low Earth orbit (LEO).
Why This Matters
LEO already contains at least 24,000 tracked objects, including active satellites and pieces of debris, and some forecasts predict the total could rise to 70,000 satellites by 2030. As the number of objects increases, so does the risk of close approaches and potentially catastrophic collisions.
How Often Close Passes Happen
New research suggests two orbiting objects pass within a kilometer (0.62 miles) of one another roughly every 22 seconds. While most of these encounters are harmless, the sheer frequency raises the odds of an accidental impact.
The Bigger Risk: Kessler Syndrome
Scientists warn of the possibility of Kessler syndrome — a cascade in which one collision creates a cloud of high-speed debris that triggers further collisions, potentially filling low orbit with shards of metal traveling at speeds around five miles per second. Such a cascade could severely limit safe use of LEO for decades.
What Operators Can Do
Satellites can perform avoidance maneuvers, but these depend on accurate, timely tracking data and coordinated information-sharing between operators. As orbital traffic grows, improving space situational awareness, collision prediction, and international coordination will be critical to reduce risks to satellites and crewed missions.
Bottom line: This near-miss is a reminder that low Earth orbit is becoming a congested, high-risk environment — and that stronger tracking, rules, and cooperation are needed to keep space safe.
