The Supreme Court is considering Louisiana v. Callais, a case that could substantially narrow Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which limits racial gerrymandering. A new analysis from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund warns that removing those protections could allow Republicans to pick up about 191 state legislative seats, primarily across 10 Southern states. The number of majority-Black or majority-Hispanic state legislative districts in those states could drop from 342 to 202, a shift advocates say would markedly reduce minority representation.
Supreme Court Case Could Let Republicans Win Nearly 200 State Legislative Seats, Analysis Warns
Republicans could pick up nearly 200 state legislative seats across the South if the U.S. Supreme Court significantly weakens Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, according to a new analysis by Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund.
What the Report Finds
The groups estimate that Democrats could lose roughly 191 state legislative seats if Section 2 protections are curtailed. The number of state legislative districts in 10 Southern states where Black or Hispanic voters form a majority could fall from 342 to 202. The 10 states included in the analysis are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.
Why It Matters
Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 has long been used to constrain racial gerrymandering by limiting lawmakers' ability to draw districts that dilute minority voting power. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Louisiana v. Callais in October, and observers say the court’s conservative majority appears poised to narrow the reach of Section 2. A ruling that weakens the provision could enable state lawmakers to redraw congressional, state legislative and local maps in ways that reduce minority representation.
“What that is doing is providing a fatal blow to Black representation in the South,” said Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo.
Legal And Political Context
Supporters of limiting Section 2 argue courts have stretched its application too far and impeded legislatures' ability to draw maps they consider lawful. In a brief to the Supreme Court, Alabama and 13 other Republican-led states argued Section 2 has become "the proverbial golden hammer, wielded by plaintiffs and courts in a never-ending search for a nail."
It is unclear whether state legislatures would pursue mid-decade redistricting if Section 2 is weakened; redistricting typically follows the decennial census. On the federal level, the same groups previously projected Republicans could gain as many as 19 U.S. House seats without Section 2 protections. Proposed new congressional maps in some states have already sparked controversy and, in states such as Indiana and Kansas, were set aside or abandoned.
Broader Consequences
Beyond immediate partisan effects, the report warns that weakened Section 2 protections could reshape representation at many levels — from state capitals to county commissions, city councils and school boards — with long-term effects on policy and political power in minority communities.
