The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warns thousands of displaced people in southwest Somalia could enter famine between October and December if El Niño triggers heavier floods and aid remains insufficient. About 26,000 displaced residents in Baidoa are at immediate risk, while over 5 million Somalis already face Crisis-level food insecurity. Food assistance is projected to reach only a small fraction of those in need, and nearly 1.92 million young children will require malnutrition treatment through next June.
Famine Warning for Southwest Somalia: 26,000 Displaced in Baidoa Could Starve by Year-End, IPC Says
FILE PHOTO: Internally displaced Somali women arrange their plastic jerrycans as they queue to collect water from a tap at the Elbet 1 camp as humanitarian funding continues to decline despite rapidly increasing needs according to Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), in Baidoa, Somalia August 10, 2026. REUTERS/Feisal Omar/File Photo
Thousands of displaced people in southwest Somalia could slide into famine between October and December if El Niño brings heavier-than-expected flooding and humanitarian assistance remains insufficient, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warned on Wednesday.
Baidoa, one of Somalia's largest cities, shelters hundreds of thousands displaced by conflict and hunger. The IPC report estimates that roughly 5% of displaced people in Baidoa — about 26,000 individuals — are likely to face starvation and a collapse of livelihoods during October–December if conditions worsen.
Key Findings
The report finds that more than 5 million Somalis (about 26% of the analysed population) are already experiencing Crisis-level food insecurity or worse due to repeated droughts, conflict and aid shortfalls. That number is forecast to rise to approximately 5.4 million in October–December.
Humanitarian reach is projected to fall far short: food assistance is expected to reach only about 70,400 people per month in October–December — roughly 1.3% of those in need. The IPC also warns that an estimated 1.92 million children aged six months to five years will require treatment for acute malnutrition by next June, including about 433,000 severe cases.
“Without a rapid increase in humanitarian assistance, parts of southwest Somalia are at heightened risk of famine between October and December,” the IPC report says.
Somalia last declared famine in 2011, when an estimated 250,000 people died; the country narrowly avoided famine again in 2017 and 2022. The IPC report underscores the urgent need for scaled-up funding, pre-positioned supplies and early response ahead of seasonal rains and potential El Niño impacts.
Reporting by Aaron Ross; writing by George Obulutsa; editing by Xevi Fontdegloria and Kevin Liffey.
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