Canada and the US are in late-stage, high-stakes talks to avert a US plan to impose 50% tariffs on roughly $20bn (C$28bn) of Canadian goods, a move that would affect about 5% of Canadian imports. Negotiators in Washington remain split on key issues including dairy quotas, autos and provincial bans on US alcohol. Public opinion is mixed—many Canadians report household effects, but only a small minority back concessions such as lifting booze bans to secure a US rollback.
Trudeau's Final Push To Avert 50% US Tariffs As Trade Deadline Looms
[Reuters]
Intense negotiations between Canada and the United States are racing toward a critical deadline as Ottawa tries to prevent a fresh package of US tariffs from taking effect on Wednesday.
Negotiations at the Wire
Canadian negotiators have been based in Washington for the past week, working to stop 50% duties being applied to about $20bn (C$28bn) of Canadian imports. If implemented, those measures would affect roughly 5% of all Canadian imports.
The prime minister's office confirmed that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke by phone with President Donald Trump on Monday as talks continued, while officials described the negotiations as "very delicate and intense." Despite a spate of recent meetings between Canadian officials and the U.S. Trade Representative, no final agreement had been announced.
Sticking Points
The United States has sought a range of concessions from Canada, asking Ottawa to remove retaliatory tariffs on American autos, adjust dairy quotas and lift provincial bans on US alcohol that were imposed in retaliation for earlier U.S. tariffs.
Any agreement on alcohol sales would require provincial approval because provinces control distribution and retail in their jurisdictions. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said restoring US alcohol to shelves would be conditional on securing broader protections for key Canadian industries.
Dairy remains especially sensitive: Canada's supply-management system uses production quotas, fixed pricing and import limits for dairy, eggs and poultry, and provincial governments—particularly in Quebec—have strongly defended the system as non-negotiable.
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion
Even if negotiators reach a deal, the federal government faces the challenge of persuading a Canadian public that is wary of concessions to the US. An Abacus Data poll found 74% of Canadians say the dispute has affected their household, while 36% support Canada responding with additional counter-tariffs even if that risks domestic economic pain. Only 18% favour concessions such as lifting provincial bans on American alcohol to induce a US rollback.
Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, leaving recent meetings with the U.S. Trade Representative, said: "Our job is not yet done." Canadian officials have warned that new U.S. tariffs could jeopardize further trade negotiations if imposed.
What’s at Stake
Canada is seeking the removal or reduction of U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium, autos and lumber—sectors that have already felt economic pressure from the dispute.
The White House unveiled the proposed new tariffs on 20 July and said they would take effect 30 days later—on Wednesday, 19 August. Ottawa says it will not sign any deal that is not in Canada's national interest and is preparing contingency plans should talks fail.
Bottom line: With a tight deadline and major industries on the line, negotiators are in the final hours of a make-or-break process that will require both international give-and-take and difficult domestic political sell‑through.
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