Geophysicist Stefan Burns, who previously forecasted the Colombia quake, warns that California could face an elevated risk of a major tremor after a 7.4 quake in El Cairo and two powerful quakes in Venezuela. He suggested a six‑month to one‑year window of heightened concern and said Southern California may be especially vulnerable because it spans multiple fault systems. Scientists acknowledge that remote triggering is possible but caution that linking distant quakes to specific future events is uncertain; preparedness remains the priority.
Earthquake Forecaster Warns California Could Be 'In The Crosshairs' After Strong South America Quakes
A geophysicist who earlier predicted the recent Colombia earthquake has warned that California may face an elevated risk of a major tremor after a magnitude 7.4 quake struck El Cairo, Colombia, and two powerful temblors hit Venezuela in late June.
Geophysicist Stefan Burns reports live after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck Colombia. Stefan Burns
“California is super overdue,”said Stefan Burns on a YouTube livestream, adding that Southern California — which sits across multiple fault systems — could be particularly vulnerable. He suggested a period of heightened concern lasting roughly six months to one year after the Colombian event.
Burns warned California could be next after a 7.4 magnitude hit El Cairo Monday and two struck Venezuela on June 24. Stefan Burns
The Colombian quake has been blamed for more than 200 deaths and left thousands missing, while the Venezuelan earthquakes on June 24 were associated with thousands of fatalities in that country. Burns argues that very large, distant earthquakes can alter stress on far‑away faults — a process he described as "loading" — and that such changes could modestly increase the chance of triggered events elsewhere.
A Colombian Army rescue worker instructs volunteers conducting search operations in Colombia, Aug. 12 (Shutterstock) CARLOS ORTEGA/EPA/Shutterstock
What Burns Is Saying
Burns cited historical examples of clustered seismic activity and noted that when two large quakes occur close together in time, they can be part of broader patterns of seismic stress transfer. He emphasized the uncertainty of any forecast: "This is not an exact science — there's an art and a science to this," he told viewers, while still urging people and officials to pay attention to trends.
People carry out rescue work in an area affected by a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Cali, Colombia. (Shutterstock) Ernesto Guzman Jr/EPA/Shutterstock
Scientific Context And Caveats
Seismologists recognize that "remote triggering" — the phenomenon by which a very large earthquake can influence stresses on distant faults — is possible. However, most experts also caution that linking specific distant quakes to particular future events is difficult and probabilistic rather than certain. Burns' warnings reflect one interpretation of these processes, not a definitive prediction that a large California quake will occur within a set window.
Burns' distressing prediction comes shortly after a chilling new study reignited concerns over the San Andreas Fault. Stefan Burns
San Andreas Concerns
Independent of Burns' comments, Caltech seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones has long highlighted the potential statewide impacts of a major San Andreas rupture. Her widely used scenario for a magnitude‑7.8 rupture projects nearly two minutes of intense shaking, severe damage to roads and utilities, and major disruption to water and lifeline infrastructure across large regions of California.
Burns cited three powerful Midwest quakes in the early 19th century that affected Caracas, Venezuela just weeks later. Stefan Burns
Burns has drawn attention for forecasting the Colombia event months in advance, but officials and scientists emphasize preparedness over panic: retrofitting vulnerable structures, updating emergency plans, and individual readiness remain the most important steps for reducing loss in any earthquake-prone region.
Bottom line: Burns urges vigilance and preparation given recent large events in South America and a plausible, if uncertain, window of elevated seismic risk for California. Experts encourage people to focus on preparedness while noting the scientific limits of precise earthquake forecasting.
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