Polling shows a sharp partisan split over ICE: Republicans largely approve of the agency, while independents and many Black and Hispanic Americans express major concerns about deportation tactics. Major surveys (Quinnipiac, YouGov, Pew and Gallup) find most Americans support immigration broadly but question aggressive enforcement. Independents—leaning toward Democrats in some polls and reporting heightened turnout motivation—could be decisive in the 2026 midterms.
Independents Could Decide 2026: Polls Reveal Deep Divide Over ICE And Deportation Tactics
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 31: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents stand guard at the New York ICE field office at the Jacob K. Javits Federal Building on July 31, 2026 in New York City. More than 1,400 migrant children across New York, including more than 700 in New York City, are set to lose legal representation as a $200 million federal contract with the Acacia Center for Justice expires. The nonprofit oversees legal services for unaccompanied migrant children and estimates the funding loss will affect more than 24,000 children nationwide. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)Photo by: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images
President Donald Trump retains strong Republican backing for his immigration agenda, but recent polling shows independents — and many Black and Hispanic voters — are far more skeptical of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the administration’s deportation tactics. That split could complicate Republican efforts in the 2026 midterms.
Key polling highlights
A Quinnipiac University poll released July 29 found 60% of registered voters disapproved of how ICE was carrying out its duties, while 37% approved. The partisan gap was large: 78% of Republicans approved of ICE, while 94% of Democrats and 67% of independents disapproved.
YouGov’s late-2025 survey showed a similar split: 79% of Republicans approved of ICE’s performance, while only 25% of independents did and 62% of independents disapproved. That survey also found 60% of independents believe ICE’s tactics are too forceful, compared with just 12% of Republicans.
Concerns about ICE cut across race and ethnicity as well. YouGov found 65% of Black Americans feared someone they know could be mistreated by ICE; that concern rose to 72% among Hispanic Americans.
Polling on deportations reinforces those worries. In April, the Pew Research Center reported 52% of Americans believe the Trump administration is doing too much to deport immigrants living in the U.S. illegally; 31% said the administration was doing about the right amount and 15% said it was doing too little. Black adults were especially likely to say the administration had gone too far (69%), followed by Hispanic (65%) and Asian (58%) adults; 45% of white adults said the same.
At the same time, Americans remain broadly positive about immigration as a whole. A July Gallup poll found 73% of Americans view immigration as a good thing for the country (down from a 2025 peak but above the long-term average). Gallup also found 75% of Americans support allowing undocumented immigrants to become citizens if they meet certain requirements, and 58% oppose deporting all undocumented immigrants. Support for a pathway to citizenship among independents reached roughly 79%.
Why the divide matters
Independents could be decisive in November. In the Quinnipiac survey, independents favored Democratic control of the U.S. House over Republican control by 53% to 31%, and 49% of independents said they were more motivated to vote in this year’s midterms than in past midterms. While immigration is unlikely to be the only factor shaping independent voters — the economy, foreign policy and other issues will also matter — the growing skepticism of ICE and deportation tactics among independents presents a political challenge for Republicans who have made enforcement a central priority.
Bottom line: Many Americans support immigration generally and want laws enforced, but a sizable and growing share — especially independents and some minority communities — question the methods and reach of current enforcement efforts. That nuance could make immigration a pivotal issue in competitive districts and for control of Congress.
Methodology note: The reporting above summarizes public results from Quinnipiac, YouGov, Pew Research Center and Gallup surveys. Percentages cited reflect the respective survey findings and were reported in each organization’s releases.
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