El-Obeid, a major refuge for people fleeing North Kordofan, has seen its displacement camp swell since March, with over 83,000 civilians sheltering in the city. International monitors warn the RSF is preparing an assault amid record drone strikes and efforts to cut supply routes, raising fears of mass atrocities and widespread food shortages for nearly 400,000 people nearby. The Sudanese military is fortifying the city while humanitarian agencies report severe strain on food, fuel and shelter.
El-Obeid Faces Renewed Threat As RSF Advances: Thousands Sheltering Amid Siege Fears
[BBC]
Thousands who fled fighting across North Kordofan and sought refuge in the military-held city of el-Obeid now face a fresh and escalating threat as paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) prepare to press an offensive, aid groups and satellite imagery say.
The United Nations' International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that el-Obeid has become a major sanctuary for people escaping nearby violence. Satellite imagery shows the main displacement camp has expanded markedly since March, with aid workers describing dozens of new arrivals each day.
Growing Displacement and Strained Services
Mohamed Refaat, IOM chief of mission in Sudan, warned: "Families have run out of safe options to protect themselves." Many of the newly arrived have been displaced repeatedly, arriving without homes, livelihoods or local support networks. The UN estimates more than 83,000 civilians have sought shelter in el-Obeid, while nearly 400,000 people in the surrounding area are at risk of food shortages after sustained efforts to cut supply routes.
Military Pressure and Infrastructure Damage
Monitoring group ACLED reported a record number of RSF drone strikes on el-Obeid in June, with attacks easing in July as the RSF reportedly responded to military operations elsewhere. Aid agencies say drone strikes have damaged critical infrastructure: verified footage showed a large explosion at a fuel station in the city centre, and satellite images indicate damage to power stations and storage facilities in the market district. Islamic Relief has also reported interruptions to flights bringing aid into the city.
[BBC]
Threats of an Assault and International Warnings
Verified video material shows heavily armed RSF units in armoured vehicles near Nyala — a nearby RSF stronghold — and independent verification placed fighters within about 40 km (24 miles) of el-Obeid. International actors including the UN, the G7 and the EU have warned of the risk of mass atrocities, citing fears of events similar to those reported in el-Fasher last October. A joint EU/G7 statement urged external actors to suspend armed, logistical and financial support to the warring parties.
Local Tensions and Defensive Measures
Reports say tensions inside el-Obeid are rising as locals express suspicion toward displaced people amid fears RSF sympathisers could be present. Satellite imagery suggests the Sudanese military is constructing a defensive berm around the city to deter attackers, and the military announced it had secured a vital highway linking el-Obeid to Khartoum. In response, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) urged his forces to press forward.
Analysis and Context
Nohad Eltayeb of ACLED described el-Obeid as a strategic hub linking RSF-held western territories with military-controlled central regions and the White Nile area. Analysts say the RSF may be seeking momentum after recent territorial losses and internal strains. Alan Boswell of Crisis Group suggested international warnings are partly driven by the failure to prevent past mass killings and a desire to avert another humanitarian catastrophe.
Humanitarian note: Aid workers say some drone strikes have recently slowed, allowing limited improvements in aid distribution and partial power restoration, but fuel and food shortages remain acute and the situation is highly unpredictable.
As front lines shift, the humanitarian situation in el-Obeid remains precarious: camps are swelling, supplies are constrained, and residents fear that a new wave of violence could produce further large-scale displacement and civilian harm.
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