The Memo: Trump Faces MAGA Vibe Shift As First Year Back Nears Its End

As President Trump approaches the end of his first year back in the White House, his political standing looks notably weaker than it did a year ago.

From Momentum To Pushback

Twelve months earlier, Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) allies rode a wave of optimism after a decisive victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris. Many believed he had reshaped national politics and assembled a durable coalition that reached younger men, nonwhite working‑class voters and even some Latino communities.

Today the landscape is more complicated. A prolonged and contentious government shutdown, slipping poll numbers and rising concern over affordability have dented the early momentum. Some erstwhile allies have grown openly critical, while high‑profile supporters and projects have been nudged away from the center of the political stage after proving politically costly.

Economic Headwinds

Polling shows widespread voter dissatisfaction on affordability and inflation. A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released Monday found 57 percent of voters believe the president is losing the fight against inflation. A recent Fox News poll found only 15 percent of respondents say Trump’s economic policies helped them, while 46 percent said they were hurt and 39 percent saw no difference.

Official inflation data through September recorded a 3.0 percent annual rate — essentially where inflation stood when Trump took his second oath of office in January. Critics say some of the political damage stems from the president’s own rhetoric — dismissing affordability concerns as a "scam" and offering an exaggerated self‑grade on the economy — which opponents say underscored a tone‑deafness to voters' day‑to‑day pressures.

Policy Responses And Political Costs

The White House has tried to push back. Trump delivered an economic address in Pennsylvania and plans additional events to promote his message that his administration is lowering costs. The administration also announced a $12 billion program to support farmers — a move the White House presents as economic relief but critics describe as a de facto bailout linked to tariff decisions that prompted retaliatory measures from China, hurting soybean and other agricultural markets.

Foreign Policy And Factional Tensions

On the world stage, Trump has publicly pursued high‑visibility diplomacy and even sought a Nobel Peace Prize. Yet conflicts persist: the war in Ukraine continues, and ceasefire hopes in Gaza have not held. Those realities, along with muscular rhetoric toward Iran and Venezuela and sustained support for Israel, have unsettled "America First" isolationists in his party who argue foreign entanglements distract from domestic priorities.

Back on Capitol Hill, Trump carried a signature legislative win in the summer, but the measure — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — remains unpopular in many polls. Political friction surfaced again when pressure forced the release of documents tied to Jeffrey Epstein; a handful of Republicans joined Democrats to compel disclosure, revealing fissures within GOP ranks that Trump could not easily control.

Still Powerful, Yet Vulnerable

Trump’s grip on parts of the Republican Party remains strong: he shapes immigration policy, challenges media adversaries, stretches the bounds of executive power and rallies his base. Yet the first year of his return has exposed the limits of that influence, showing that economic concerns, internal dissent and foreign policy setbacks can erode political standing even for a uniquely dominant figure.

Note: This column was reported by Niall Stanage.