Airlines Warn SAF Shortfall Could Jeopardize 2050 Net‑Zero Goal as Supply Lags

GENEVA, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Airlines and industry bodies have warned that a shortage of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could undermine the aviation sector’s plans to reach net‑zero emissions by 2050, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Tuesday.

SAF — largely produced from waste feedstocks such as used cooking oil — can cut lifecycle carbon emissions substantially compared with conventional jet kerosene. But production remains very limited and the fuel is typically two to five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, a major barrier to rapid uptake.

IATA Forecasts And Industry Concerns

IATA expects about 2.4 million metric tons of SAF to be available in 2026, covering roughly 0.8% of global jet fuel consumption that year. While SAF production doubled between 2024 and 2025, IATA projects only a modest increase of around 0.5 million metric tons between 2025 and 2026 — a sign that growth is slowing.

According to IATA data, SAF currently represents about 0.3% of worldwide jet fuel use and was projected to reach only 0.7% by 2025 — far short of the scale experts say is required for the industry to meet emissions targets.

“We are not seeing SAF produced in the volumes we had hoped for and had expected. That is disappointing,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh told reporters, restating earlier warnings that the 2050 net‑zero target could be at risk if supplies do not ramp up.

Supply, Price And Regulation

Airlines say they are prepared to buy all available SAF but accuse traditional jet fuel suppliers of limiting volumes and using regulatory mandates in places like the European Union and Britain to raise SAF prices further. IATA Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen said such mandates have encouraged some suppliers to push prices higher; Walsh described the price moves as tantamount to price gouging.

Industry analysts and environmental experts argue that reaching the sector’s long‑term climate goals will require major investment and policy support to accelerate SAF production, reduce costs, expand feedstock availability, and ensure fair market access for airlines.

(Reporting by Joanna Plucinska and Olivia Le Poidevin in Geneva; Editing by Louise Heavens)