East Tennessee Farmers Face Steep Losses as Trade War Squeezes Soybean Market

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — Tennessee farmers are bracing for heavy financial losses this year as a prolonged trade conflict with China disrupts export markets, according to the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture.

Trade Turmoil and Crop Losses

The institute estimates the state could lose roughly $200 million in 2025, with soybeans accounting for a large share of the pain. "On a planted acres basis, we have around three million acres in our state and one and a half of those is dedicated to soybeans," said University of Tennessee assistant professor Charley Martinez. "Soybean is our biggest row crop that we produce here in our state — amongst the big ones."

"We produce a lot of soybeans domestically that we then end up shipping out to other countries around the world," Martinez said. "And whenever we think about the trade environment that we've had the last couple of years, our demand has been altered where we don't have trading partners."

Many farmers report strong yields that have only increased supply while demand — particularly exports to China — has weakened. Rising input costs have compounded the problem, leaving some producers with multiple consecutive years of losses.

Federal Relief Proposal

To help offset the shortfall, the federal government proposed a relief package that would provide $11 billion for row-crop growers and an additional $1 billion for specialty-crop producers. The measures aim to stabilize incomes while trade negotiations continue.

A Farmer's Perspective

Local farmer John Litz, a fourth-generation East Tennessee grower and former State Executive Director for the USDA Tennessee Farm Service Agency, said the impact is severe. "I'm standing to lose somewhere in the neighborhood of around probably $200 or $250 an acre on my corn crop and probably somewhere in the neighborhood of around $75 to $125 per acre on my soybean crop," Litz said. He farms about 1,000 acres of corn and 1,800 acres of soybeans.

"There's always that pressure from development land. We're within a mile of the city...It’s probably worth quite a bit of money. I would hate to have to sell it to be able to pay off the debt that I've lost in raising crops on it," Litz said.

Litz and other producers have explored alternatives — including converting excess soy and corn into bio-diesel — but finding reliable buyers remains a key obstacle. As costs mount and markets fluctuate, maintaining family farms is becoming increasingly difficult.

"I want to fix it so that he and his son will be able to farm it into the future," Litz said, describing his hope to pass the operation to his nephew and preserve the family's agricultural legacy.

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