America Is Aging — How Seniors’ Rising Political Clout Is Shaping Policy (And Hurting the Young)

Between 1960 and 2024, the share of Americans aged 65 and older doubled — from about 9% to roughly 18% — and the country will only grow grayer. Census Bureau projections indicate that within a decade seniors may outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history, and people over 65 could account for about one-quarter of the population by 2060.

Why This Matters Politically

Older Americans already exercised outsized influence in 2024: roughly 29% of the electorate were seniors. Because older voters turn out at higher rates and are more politically organized, their growing share of the population amplifies their ability to shape taxes, benefits, and housing policy.

State-Level Tax Shifts Favoring Older Households

In recent years multiple states have enacted measures that either cut property taxes for older homeowners or exempt retirement income from state taxation. Examples include property-tax reductions targeted to homeowners 65+ in Texas, Colorado, Iowa, and Pennsylvania since 2022. Several states — Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and West Virginia — eliminated taxes on Social Security benefits, while Iowa removed taxes on all forms of retirement income for residents over 55.

Who benefits most? Broad tax breaks disproportionately help wealthier, long-term homeowners. For instance, an analysis of Illinois’ retirement-income exemptions found households earning over $175,000 received about 60% of the benefits.

Property-Tax Politics And Unequal Outcomes

Property-tax relief has been a dominant theme: Texas enacted roughly $18 billion in property-tax cuts in 2023, and other states including Georgia, North Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Idaho have passed reductions. Florida’s long-standing cap limits an individual homeowner’s annual assessment growth to 3%, creating large disparities over time between longtime owners and new buyers. A Lincoln Institute of Land Policy report estimated a young family buying a Miami townhouse in 2024 would pay about three times the property tax of an identical unit owned by someone who has lived there since 2006.

Because seniors are much more likely to own homes (about 79% of those 65+ own versus roughly 39% of people under 35), property-tax cuts tend to favor older households. Maintaining lower property levies long-term usually requires higher sales or income taxes or cuts to public services — outcomes that typically burden younger, working-age Americans more heavily. Funding pressures have already contributed to practical consequences: school districts operating on four-day weeks rose from about 650 in 2019 to nearly 900 in 2023.

Federal Policy Tilted Toward the Elderly

The U.S. has long spent relatively little on families with children — about 0.6% of GDP in 2021, compared with an OECD average near 2.3% — while devoting roughly 7.2% of GDP to public pensions the same year. Population aging and rising health-care costs would push federal spending toward seniors even without policy changes, but Congress has also enacted measures that accelerate that tilt.

At the end of 2024, lawmakers approved a change enabling many public-sector workers to receive full Social Security benefits in addition to their pensions — a move estimated to cost close to $20 billion a year. Critics warned the policy disproportionately benefits people who did not always pay Social Security taxes and could accelerate trust-fund depletion.

The Political Economy And The Generational Stakes

Across recent administrations and majorities, policy choices — from tax breaks for homeowners and retirees to reluctance to curb health-care prices and restrictive immigration and permitting rules — have combined to preserve benefits for older Americans while limiting investments that would most help younger families. That pattern risks slowing growth, increasing borrowing, and leaving younger generations to shoulder more of the fiscal adjustment.

Not inevitable: The demographic shift does not doom the country to favoritism for the elderly. Most voters will remain under 65 for decades, and younger people could organize politically to defend their broad material interests.

Where Young People Are Fighting Back

The YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) movement — largely composed of younger renters and allies — has pressured cities to relax restrictive zoning rules to expand housing supply. When young voters mobilize on such cross-cutting issues, policy can shift toward broader prosperity rather than reinforcing age-based advantages.

Bottom line: The U.S. is aging, and policymakers are increasingly responding in ways that advantage older, often wealthier homeowners and retirees. Unless younger voters organize and policymakers pursue different tax, health-care, and growth strategies, these trends are likely to continue shaping generational winners and losers.

Series supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures; Vox retained editorial control.