New Yale Poll: Newsom Tops Early 2028 Democratic Field As Young Voters Turn Against Trump

Overview: A new nationwide survey from the Yale Youth Poll finds California Governor Gavin Newsom emerging as the early Democratic front-runner for the 2028 presidential contest, while young voters are trending sharply negative toward President Donald Trump.

Poll Details

The Yale Youth Poll, an undergraduate-led research project, interviewed 3,426 registered voters across the United States and included a substantial oversample of 1,706 respondents aged 18–34. The online survey was conducted in English by Verasight from 29 October to 11 November 2025 and carries a margin of error of ±1.7 percentage points for the full sample.

Democratic Preferences

Although no Democrat in the survey has formally announced a 2028 bid, Governor Gavin Newsom tops the party’s potential field with 25% support. He is followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D‑NY) at 16%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%.

In a separate question testing perceived general-election strength, Democratic respondents rated Newsom the most electable: 85% of Democrats said he was the candidate most likely to beat a generic Republican challenger.

Republican Landscape

On the GOP side, Vice President J.D. Vance leads a hypothetical Trump-free primary with 51% support among Republican respondents. However, when participants were asked to imagine a hypothetical third term for President Donald Trump, Trump still drew 50% support while Vance fell to 19%, underscoring how much of the Republican electorate remains loyal to Trump. Younger Republican voters are notably less enthusiastic: Trump fails to secure a majority among voters under 30.

Youth Opinion And Strategic Implications

The poll indicates President Trump’s standing with younger Americans has weakened since a narrow uptick in spring 2025. Voters aged 18–34 now disapprove of his performance by margins of 30 points or more, and Democrats hold double-digit leads on the generic congressional ballot across every under-35 age band.

Strategically, Republican respondents prefer doubling down on base turnout and Trump-style politics: 55% of GOP voters say the party should prioritize turning out its base. Democrats, by contrast, are split between energizing core voters and moving toward the center — a tension that contributes to Newsom’s positioning as a compromise candidate who combines youth appeal with perceived electability.

Bottom line: The Yale Youth Poll positions Gavin Newsom as the early Democratic favorite heading into 2028, highlights deep generational divides over Trump, and shows competing strategic pressures within both parties.