Trump Threatens 5% Tariff on Mexico Over Rio Grande Water Shortfall, Demands Immediate Deliveries

President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a 5 percent tariff on Mexico, accusing the country of violating a decades-old 1944 water-sharing treaty that guarantees U.S. farmers access to flows from the Rio Grande and other rivers.

What Trump Said

In a post on his social platform, Trump said Mexico now owes the United States 800,000 acre-feet of water under the 1944 treaty that governs sharing of water from the Colorado, Tijuana and Rio Grande rivers. He said the shortage is damaging Texas crops and livestock and demanded that Mexico release 200,000 acre-feet before the end of the year.

"As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an obligation to FIX THIS NOW."

Treaty Obligations And Figures

The 1944 treaty obliges Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the United States every five years. Trump has previously warned — in April — that Mexico had delivered less than 30 percent of its obligation in the five-year window that ended in October.

Mexico's Response And Constraints

Mexican officials say prolonged drought, driven in part by climate change, has constrained their ability to send the required volumes. Still, Mexico pledged to deliver 420,000 acre-feet to the United States by October.

Political And Economic Context

Trump's post came shortly after an afternoon meeting with farmers and lawmakers from agriculture-heavy states, where he announced a $12 billion bailout for growers hurt by his ongoing trade disputes. He has again threatened trade penalties — including the new 5 percent tariff — over the water deliveries.

Mexican imports already face a 25 percent tariff, although many goods may be exempt if they comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated during Trump's first term. Additional U.S. tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel and aluminum imposed on national security grounds also affect bilateral trade.

Note: Reporting contribution by Doug Palmer.