Trapped in Rafah Tunnels: Dozens of Hamas Fighters Could Collapse the Gaza Ceasefire

On Monday the UN Security Council approved a US-drafted resolution envisioning an international security force and leaving a pathway open to Palestinian statehood. Yet the most immediate threat to the fragile Israel–Hamas ceasefire may be unfolding not in New York but beneath the streets of Rafah.

Why the tunnels matter

Gaza is far from calm. The Hamas-run health ministry reports roughly 268 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire since the ceasefire began, not counting those killed by Hamas. Large-scale combat has not resumed — but that could change rapidly because of a small, isolated group of militants.

Dozens — possibly as many as 200 — of Hamas fighters are believed to be trapped in underground tunnels behind Israeli lines, cut off from Hamas-held areas and likely running low on supplies. These fighters have been blamed for at least two ambushes in October that killed three IDF soldiers, each followed by heavy Israeli reprisals that killed dozens of Palestinians across the Strip.

Diplomatic impasse

The trapped fighters have become a diplomatic sticking point. Israel insists the militants disarm and surrender; Hamas demands safe passage back to territory it controls; and the US — through its plan — wants a quick, workable solution. Countries that have expressed willingness to contribute troops to a proposed international stabilization force (including Azerbaijan, Indonesia and Pakistan) are reluctant to commit forces to forcibly disarm militants in urban rubble. Turkey has also shown interest but remains unacceptable to Israel as a participant.

Hamas leaders publicly rejected the stabilization-force concept ahead of the Security Council vote, and there is little sign the group will disarm voluntarily. At the same time, Israel’s government is hesitant to move forward with later stages of the US plan — which envision disarming Hamas, deploying an international force, and transitioning Gaza governance to a new authority — in part because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes steps that could be interpreted as advancing Palestinian statehood.

Options and risks

Officials have floated several options: conditional safe passage if Hamas begins turning over weapons; granting the trapped fighters amnesty; or transferring them to a willing third country. Reports say these proposals were discussed in talks involving Israeli and US interlocutors, including Jared Kushner and a US envoy. But Netanyahu has so far rejected allowing the militants to cross the so-called "yellow line" unarmed into Hamas-held areas, and no third country has publicly agreed to accept them.

The trapped fighters are a literal and symbolic test of the ceasefire: immobilized and vulnerable, any desperate move could ignite far greater violence.

Outlook

For now, the region risks settling into a dangerous inertia: a frozen conflict in which both sides prefer the status quo to a politically risky transition that would disarm and marginalize Hamas and strengthen the Palestinian Authority. But that freeze is fragile. The longer these militants remain trapped, the more likely they are to fight rather than surrender — which could trigger renewed Israeli operations and end the ceasefire.

As mediators explore creative solutions, the core problem remains political and operational: how to neutralize an armed group trapped behind enemy lines without provoking wider violence. Until negotiators resolve that dilemma, the ceasefire will remain precarious.