Summary: A Pew analysis of 1993 and 2023 Monitoring the Future surveys finds a marked drop in 12th‑grade girls saying they expect to marry (83% → 61%), largely because more teens now answer "no idea" rather than "unlikely." The trend points to rising ambivalence among girls, likely driven by expanded options for women, changing family experiences, and economic barriers—not a single cause such as social media or abortion policy. The piece urges nuance: declining enthusiasm for marriage contains both social costs and gains in autonomy.
Why High‑School Girls Are Growing Ambivalent About Marriage — What the Data Actually Show
Summary: A Pew analysis of 1993 and 2023 Monitoring the Future surveys finds a marked drop in 12th‑grade girls saying they expect to marry (83% → 61%), largely because more teens now answer "no idea" rather than "unlikely." The trend points to rising ambivalence among girls, likely driven by expanded options for women, changing family experiences, and economic barriers—not a single cause such as social media or abortion policy. The piece urges nuance: declining enthusiasm for marriage contains both social costs and gains in autonomy.
10:31 PM, 11/17/2025Society
Key point: Recent Pew Research analysis of the University of Michigan’s Monitoring the Future surveys finds a sharp decline in the share of 12th‑grade girls who say they expect to marry — but most of that decline reflects rising uncertainty, not a surge in firm opposition.
What the data say
Pew compared responses from 1993 and 2023 to the Monitoring the Future survey, which asks 12th graders whether they expect to marry someday. Respondents can answer: likely to marry, unlikely to marry, or no idea.
In 1993, 80% of 12th graders said they were likely to marry and 5% said they were unlikely to marry. In 2023, those figures were 67% and 9%, respectively. The share saying "no idea" rose from 16% to 24% — and that growth explains most of the drop in the "likely to marry" category.
Gender differences are notable: boys remained roughly stable (76% → 74% saying they expect to marry), while girls fell from 83% to 61% saying they expect to marry. Because the "unlikely" group only rose by four percentage points, most of the 22‑point drop among girls reflects an increase in uncertainty rather than a mass conversion to firm opposition to marriage.
How to read this
The clearest takeaway is rising ambivalence among high‑school girls about whether they will marry — not an overwhelming rejection of marriage. The survey asks what respondents think they will do "in the long run," which is not the same as a definitive prediction of future behavior.
Possible contributing factors
- More options for women: Decades of legal, economic, and professional gains have made living without a husband more feasible and socially acceptable.
- Changing family models and experience: Higher rates of single parenthood and divorce mean more young people lack stable marriage role models.
- Economic and social barriers: Weak job markets, mass incarceration, opioid addiction, and other social problems have made marriage less feasible or attractive in some communities.
- Shifting norms about partnerships: Some young people may favor long‑term partnerships or cohabitation without formal marriage.
- Information environment: Stories about divorce, difficult relationship markets, or precarious finances may increase hesitancy — but social media or the internet are unlikely to be sole explanations.
Why it matters
Rising ambivalence is important because expectations can shape life choices — education, career planning, fertility decisions — even if they don't perfectly predict outcomes. The trend also highlights that changing marriage patterns are multifaceted: they contain both losses (greater fragility in some communities) and gains (greater autonomy and choices for women).
Bottom line
The data warn against quick culture‑war conclusions. A thoughtful interpretation recognizes multiple, sometimes opposing effects: structural harms that make marriage less attainable for many, and social progress that gives individuals the option to live fulfilling lives with or without marriage.
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Originally published on Reason.com. This version clarifies the statistics, tightens language, and organizes likely explanations and implications for readers.