Moon Traffic Is Rising: Why Better Tracking and Coordination Are Urgent

Interest in the Moon is surging. In the past two years there have been 12 attempts to reach the lunar environment, nearly half by private companies. That activity spike makes coordination, monitoring and collision avoidance increasingly important.

Why cislunar space can still be crowded

At first glance cislunar space—the region between Earth and the Moon—appears enormous. It spans from geostationary orbit (GEO) out to the Moon and has a volume roughly 2,000 times larger than Earth's near-space orbital zone. But spacecraft tend to occupy a limited set of stable lunar orbits, which concentrates traffic into predictable corridors.

Worse, most government sensors that track objects in near-Earth space cannot reliably detect and follow objects that far away. The Moon's glare and long distances make consistent tracking difficult, increasing uncertainty about where each spacecraft actually is.

What the research shows

Our interdisciplinary team—blending space policy and astrodynamics—modeled how growing spacecraft numbers and location uncertainties affect collision risk. In research published in March 2025 in the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, we found that if about 50 satellites occupy lunar orbit, each would need to perform roughly four avoidance maneuvers per year on average. That frequency imposes significant fuel costs and can disrupt mission objectives.

Example: the Indian Space Research Organisation reported three maneuvers for Chandrayaan-2 over four years, even when only six spacecraft were in lunar orbit—an early sign of how congestion can arise.

Security and policy implications

Tracking cislunar space is not only a safety issue but also a national-security concern. Several countries possess anti-satellite capabilities, and some analysts worry such systems could be deployed in cislunar space to evade detection. The U.S. Space Force and other organizations are examining these security dimensions.

Research by Mariel and colleagues argues that developing "cislunar space domain awareness" should be a priority. Improved sensing would let military and civilian agencies observe activity, gather intelligence, and assess potential threats more effectively.

Emerging monitoring and coordination efforts

New programs aim to extend sensing farther from Earth. The Air Force Research Laboratory funds Oracle, a program that will deploy systems to improve coverage of cislunar space. The first Oracle satellite is expected to launch in 2027 and operate near a Lagrange point—a gravitationally stable location between Earth and the Moon—where it can detect objects that ground-based sensors miss.

Monitoring alone is not enough. Agencies and commercial operators must also share position and trajectory data and coordinate maneuvers. NASA runs a program dedicated to tracking and assessing lunar traffic that compares operators' planned trajectories to flag potential close approaches. Combining improved sensors like Oracle with routine information-sharing could substantially reduce unnecessary avoidance burns.

International cooperation is essential

The Outer Space Treaty obliges nations to avoid harmful interference but does not provide operational rules for traffic management. In February 2025 the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) formed a team to address coordination challenges around the Moon.

With government and commercial missions increasing—and with NASA's next crewed Moon mission planned for early 2026—international cooperation, transparent data-sharing, and better sensing will be crucial to protect shared interests and keep lunar operations safe and sustainable.

Note: This article draws on a March 2025 study in the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets and publicly reported operational examples such as ISRO's Chandrayaan-2. Programs mentioned include the Air Force Research Laboratory's Oracle effort and ongoing NASA tracking initiatives.