Skies at Stake: How the U.S. and China Are Racing for Air Dominance in the Pacific

How two superpowers are reshaping airpower for a Pacific showdown

From next-generation stealth bombers to AI-enabled unmanned systems, the United States and China are investing heavily in technologies intended to deny each other freedom of action over the Western Pacific. Each side pursues a distinct strategy: the U.S. emphasizes highly advanced, networked platforms and autonomous "loyal wingman" drones, while China leans on rapid volume production, missile saturation, and expanded carrier capability.

U.S. modernization: F-47, B-21 and collaborative combat aircraft

After a brief pause in 2024, the U.S. Air Force awarded Boeing a contract in March to develop the F-47, a manned sixth-generation fighter intended to form the backbone of future American air superiority. The service expects the F-47 to make its first flight in 2028. At the same time, the B-21 Raider — the stealth successor to the B-2 — is in advanced flight testing at Edwards Air Force Base, with plans to procure at least 100 Raiders designed to penetrate heavily defended airspace.

The Pentagon is also investing in Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs), unmanned "loyal wingman" platforms meant to operate alongside crewed fighters. Prototype CCAs from companies such as Anduril and General Atomics have already flown, and officials say a single pilot will be able to command multiple drones, extending reach and complicating enemy targeting.

China’s push: stealth fighters, engines and carrier aviation

China has accelerated its airpower modernization, focusing on three historically limiting areas: stealth, propulsion and carriers. The Chengdu J-20 is being fitted with the domestically produced WS-15 engine to improve performance. Beijing commissioned its third carrier, the Fujian, this fall — the first in its fleet equipped with electromagnetic catapults, a capability that supports launching heavier, stealth-capable aircraft from the sea.

Together with the developing carrier-capable J-35 and an expanding missile network, China is building a layered air and strike architecture that operates from land and sea.

Missiles, runways and the vulnerability of forward basing

Chinese doctrine and analyses emphasize the vulnerability of airfields. PLA campaign guidance calls for striking runways and support facilities early in a conflict to paralyze opposing air operations. Analysts warn that concentrated missile strikes in the opening days of a confrontation could damage or disable U.S. forces stationed on forward bases across Japan, Okinawa and Guam.

"The U.S. bases that are forward deployed — particularly on Okinawa, but also on the Japanese mainland and on Guam — are exposed to Chinese missile attack," said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "In our war games, the Chinese would periodically sweep these air bases with missiles and destroy dozens, in some cases even hundreds, of U.S. aircraft."

Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies, says China’s missile‑heavy approach compensates for earlier shortfalls in air-to-air performance: "They didn’t think that they could gain air superiority in a straight-up air-to-air fight. So you need another way to get missiles out — and that another way is by building a lot of ground launchers."

Different approaches, same objective

The two militaries are pursuing different paths to the same goal: air dominance over the Pacific. The U.S. strategy rests on fewer, more advanced aircraft linked by sensors, secure datalinks and AI to strike from long range and survive in contested airspace. China’s approach emphasizes quantity — mass-produced fighters, substantial missile forces, and persistent carrier operations aimed at overwhelming U.S. defenses and logistics.

Both sides face the same central challenge: survivability inside a growing defensive bubble. Heginbotham argues that the primary problem in the coming decade will not be dogfights but protecting aircraft and bases on the ground. "Survivability — not dogfighting — will define the next decade of air competition," he said. He also warned that China is actively practicing runway strikes and hardening its bases, while the U.S. has been slower to adopt similar measures.

What’s next

The speed at which the U.S. fields F-47s, B-21s and CCAs will be shaped by Pentagon budget decisions for fiscal 2026–27. China’s rapid modernization is narrowing a once-wide technological gap, but the United States retains advantages in stealth integration, combat experience and autonomous systems. Analysts emphasize that the ability to protect, disperse and sustain airpower on the ground will be central to whether either side can maintain the upper hand in a future Pacific conflict.

For decades U.S. air superiority was largely assumed; in the Pacific, that certainty is no longer guaranteed.